There is a kind of hush all over the province this week end as Albertans reflect on the future of their province and who will best serve as our next Premier. Then there is the question of which local candidate is the most aligned with the personal perspectives and aspirations of voters to represent them in the Legislature. Not an easy decision but one an informed and engaged citizen must make on Monday.
There is one constituency where the weekend hush of reflection has been replaced by a vigorous campaign BUZZ. That BUZZ is what is happening in Edmonton Riverview where the PC candidate Wendy Andrews and her Green Theme as has snuck up on Alberta Liberal Leader, Kevin Taft.
A recent telephone survey of 3,453 Edmonton Riverview constituents was done by Banister Research. The findings are the basis for the PC BUZZ in this constituency campaign. Change is in the political air in Alberta in this election and these survey results prove it in spades.
Look at these numbers. There were 12409 original constituency household phone numbers called last week. There were 3,453 actual respondents who were asked would they support Wendy Andrews, yes or no. Here is what they said. There were 992 (28.7%) who supported the PC’s Andrews and 1,092 (31.6%) who will not.
Here is the kicker!!! There are 1369 – that is 39.6% - who are UNDECIDED in Edmonton Riverview at this late stage of the campaign.
Look at these numbers. There were 12409 original constituency household phone numbers called last week. There were 3,453 actual respondents who were asked would they support Wendy Andrews, yes or no. Here is what they said. There were 992 (28.7%) who supported the PC’s Andrews and 1,092 (31.6%) who will not.
Here is the kicker!!! There are 1369 – that is 39.6% - who are UNDECIDED in Edmonton Riverview at this late stage of the campaign.
This is in Alberta Liberal Leader, Kevin Taft’s home riding. Last election the Alberta Liberal leader, Dr. Kevin Taft got 65% of the vote. This time he looks like he is in a much closer contest. Time will tell.
This survey result has the makings of an upset if those undecided voters show up for change in the form of the Wendy Andrews and her Fresh Thinking green theme campaign. My guess is the Wendy Andrew’s Get-Out-The-Vote volunteers will be energized and vigorous on Monday. Will it be panicky and nerve-wracking for the Taft campaign in Edmonton Riverview tomorrow? Looks like it.
In any event getting out the vote is what will make ALL the difference in the Edmonton Riverview outcome on Monday night. Based on the size of the undecided factor, Edmonton Riverview just became another key race for the whole province to watch.
This survey result has the makings of an upset if those undecided voters show up for change in the form of the Wendy Andrews and her Fresh Thinking green theme campaign. My guess is the Wendy Andrew’s Get-Out-The-Vote volunteers will be energized and vigorous on Monday. Will it be panicky and nerve-wracking for the Taft campaign in Edmonton Riverview tomorrow? Looks like it.
In any event getting out the vote is what will make ALL the difference in the Edmonton Riverview outcome on Monday night. Based on the size of the undecided factor, Edmonton Riverview just became another key race for the whole province to watch.
C'mon, that's a push poll.
ReplyDeleteTaft is gonna win that one by at least 20% tomorrow.
Yes it is a push poll - but 40% undecided is the impressive finding. Could be Taft wins with a 20% margin - but he won by 65% last time. What does that say???
ReplyDeleteVolatility and variability is the new normal. There is not much personal or brand loyalty in the attitudes of the Alberta electorate either this election.
That is my point.
There are no safe seats in Alberta anymore, regardless of party and prominence - save perhaps Stelmach in Vegreville.
That is a good thing.
Congratulations, you just lost any credibility you might have had -- which was in grave doubt any way -- by portraying this as serious research.
ReplyDeleteAnd Taft didn't win by 65% in 04, he won with 65%.
What I'll be looking forward to tomorrow night is watching Dave Hancock go down in flames, if only to see your hefty contracts dry up and Cambridge Strategies go bankrupt.
I dare you to moderate this.
Hi Space Cadet - oops! Another mistake...my bad.
ReplyDeleteOf course I would accept a comment that corrects an error, even if it was primarily meant to be mean spirited, in poor taste and inane.
My actual post says Taft won in 2004 "with" 65% of the vote. Please accept my apologies for the comment error I made saying he won "by" 65%.
Your generous sentiments and mistaken facts about where Cambridge Strategies gets its work from are noted too.
Please understand that I don't actually expect YOU to "moderate" this reply since you are so profoundly courageous and hiding your true identity.
Well done Space Cowboy:
Your Troll value - priceless. Your Credibility value - ZERO.
Don't hold your breath about tomorrow night's election results either. On second thought - go ahead.
As for it being serious research - I quote the question, the source, who did the survey and for whom and I put the results in context.
Readers of this Blog get to judge if they take it seriously...or not.
I think a potential for 40% undecided voters in this riding immediatley before election day is worth noting and ought to be taken seriously by those candidates running in Riverview.
What about if people are undecided between, say, Taft and Bullwinkle? (like me for instance, it being my riding.) Or between any two candidates besides Andrews or Taft?
ReplyDeleteExactly Micah - and don't forget - most undecideds don't usually show up to vote.
ReplyDeleteWhat will happen tomorrow in the final results in Riverview with such a volume of potentially volatile undecideds - if they show?
I don't know where they will go (if they go anywhere) but if I was the guy running there who wanted to be Premier AND needed to win this seat first - under these circumstances - I would be nervous.
Kevin Taft is going to win solidly. Neither Stelmach or the local candidate have impressed.
ReplyDeleteWe will know soon!
ReplyDeleteCall it Ralph Klein's final victory. First Klein shrugged off Kevin Taft's in-depth "Shredding the Public Interest" (possibly confusing it with a much thicker Leon's flyer which was published about the same time).
ReplyDeleteSecondly, Taft rode high in the quest to unseat Klein in 2004, and while he did increase the Liberal seat count, Klein still won.
Finally today, Klein sat in the Global news studio and came damn close to announcing Kevin Taft lost his seat as his party collapsed versus a leader that Taft was sure on February 10th he could obliterate at the ballot box.
Ouch. Tough night for Kevin, The Libs, and of course, Space Cowboy.
ReplyDelete- Progressive Canucklehead