Reboot Alberta

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Harper "Achingly Close" To a Majority


The EKOS polling firm has gone deeper than most pollsters in this election. They are not stuck in the misleading national poll numbers but rather do seat projections in each province. Their results are much more interesting and nuanced than the other polls I follow.

The voter volatility in Quebec and Ontario is the key to the results in this election. EKOS says the BQ is on track to win BIG in Quebec. The slight shift of a few hundred voters will make all the difference in the outcomes in ridings in Quebec and Ontario. I expect lots of drama on election night and the issue of a Harper majority – on not. Canadians may have to wait until BC decides that issues one way or another on October 14.

The four way horse race in BC in other polling results is misleading because it ignores the efficiency of the Conservative vote in Lotusland. The Conservatives are in the driver’s seat to win big in BC. EKOS has projected them at 24 seats as of yesterday with the NDP doing rather well with 8 seats and a Liberal meltdown to 4 seats. B.C. is no long the "Left Coast."

The Cons are “achingly close” to a majority with 146 seats according to the EKOS seat projection. The Liberals are getting down to John Turner level of seats and now projected at 66 with almost 2/3 of their seat projections coming from Ontario.

EKOS shows a resurgence of the Bloc in Quebec that is apparently thwarting the Harper majority with a little help from a slight shift in Ontario to the Liberals who were closing the seat gap with the Conservatives in the past week.

The easy to overlook “sleeper” result in this weeks EKOS seat projection is the prediction of 1 LIBERAL seat in Alberta. That has to be Jim Wachowich, who is my choice in my constituency of Edmonton Centre. Harper is taking Alberta for granted and Edmonton is a contrarian place and may be sending him a message.

8 comments:

  1. Ken: Lesley Hughes just called and said she wants to talk to you about a popular theory that resonates among certain of our immigrant population.

    Her theory is that Jewish companies bailed out of the Twin Towers some time before 9/11 because they had advanced knowledge of the attack.

    This is remarkably like the theory ricocheting around the Middle East and the more radical mosques in N. America that the 9/11 attack was the co-ordinated work of the Americans and the Israelis to foment trouble between the West and Muslim countries.

    Glad to see that the Libs still contain dinosaurs who are ready to jump in line with any immigrant cause in the Liberal manner of being sooooo politically correct. Too bad these ideas about how life in Canada should be are so adverse to a Canadian middle class sense of security, and run counter to a Canadian framework of personal rights and freedoms.

    Funny though - the people with whom she shares these theories and promulgates them throughout are the first people to have her shut away and silenced for the simple fact of being a woman.

    Very progressive.

    She got a call from your favourite leader Mr. Dion who took a little while to distance himself. She wonders now as a private citizen if you will be phoning to discuss with her your rants against the Tory party, and if she can help with your conspiracy theories.

    Ironic eh?

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  2. Anonymous1:54 pm

    Ken, I am not sure if you have ever seen Hawn's election machine but he probably has the best campaign team in the country. I think the one seat in Alberta must refer to Jaffer who is running against a strong candidate in Duncan who is also enjoying a resurgence of the NDP as opposition at the cost of Liberals. I would never rule out a Wachowich, but I find it quite unlikely. If Hawn can beet Annie (and the Liberals overall support decreasing), then I would put money on him.

    A strong minority for Harper will be enough for the CPC to push their agenda through the house at will. Good for Canada. Good for Canadians.

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  3. Crackers - you crack me up. Dinosaurs indeed...Ms. Hughes sounds like she is stuck in the
    60's and longing for the halycion days of quoting Chairman Mao.

    Read Blanchford's "profile" on what is "left" of Ms. Hughes in the Globe and Mail today.

    Eric! I am sure Laurie's Edmonton Centre machine is running on all cylinders and it is a very good campaign team for sure!

    However voter sentiment is shifting...and this latest "Life is a Bitumen" blunder by Harper is not going to help. It is proof he takes the Alberta base for granted.

    Not even talking to Stelmach first before dumping such a bombshell that can crater the Alberta economy by adding more uncertainty is typical of Emperor Harper's approach. This is not bad taste Puffin poop...this is serious.

    I have niggling feeling some seriously disgruntled Edmontonians in Centre and Strathcona are about to send Harper a message at the ballot box. Watch out for strategic voting Eric. That could end up with a Liberal in Centre and a Dipper in Strathcona. A long shot but a shot none the less...especially with the Harper snub of the GOA and his direct interference in Alberta's natural resources.

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  4. Anonymous6:21 pm

    You are right that there is a chance. Even as a strong conservative supporter, I would like to have a voice in Alberta from the other parties. It would allow for healthy and different perspective. I mean, while I couldn't stand Anne, she did do a lot of good for our city while she held the seat.

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  5. Anonymous1:52 am

    Can someone please explain to me what Mr. Harper will do that is "good for Canadians"?

    So far what I've seen is that he'll deregulate food safety, throw 14 yr olds in prison to become hardened criminals early, tell the terrorists and taliban just how long they have to wait before we leave, give first-time home buyers 750 bucks back in taxes assuming that they're paying the maximum amount of taxes already, and.. uh.. actually.. that's it.

    How is any of this "good for Canadians"?

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  6. eric @6:21 - It is a secret ballot for a reason my friend.

    Vote your true values and what is best for the country not what is best for Stephen Harper.

    We need as many voices to be heard as possible for democracy to flourish. Not just Mr. Harper's voice. His voice is intent on bullying his opposition, suppressing his caucus, cabinet and others and cynically manipulating the media with false messages.

    Harper is not only Not Worth the Risk. He is the Risk.

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  7. Anonymous11:19 am

    Well Ken with a Harper majority, both you and Canada win. Our country wins from the best government in Canadian history. You win because you have something to blame all evil on.

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  8. Anon-evidence please that Harper provided the best government in Canadian history? He said it was disfunctional and that is why he called the election.

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