What is the world coming to when only our satirists make sense anymore? Rick Mercer proves that point in this perceptive piece in the Globe and Mail today.
The EKOS poll of Sept 24 has some interesting results. I think the increase of the Cons support and the decrease of the NDP support revolves around the fact Canadians do not want an election now. The flat Liberal support in the face of the declaration that they will no longer prop up the Harper government means that they will now be acting like a true opposition. No longer will the Liberals be saying how insufficient and ineffective the government is and then voting for their policies to avoid an election.
The Cons level of commitment to their party is based on the sense that this next election is the last great hope for Harper to get a majority. If he fails to do that, the long knives will be out amongst the party elites and the base will stay home. The push to redistribute the House of Commons seats this fall will add seats in Alberta, BC and Ontario. Harper will pander to people there this election. It will not be as much as he pandered to Quebec last election but he has to bolster his base in BC and Alberta and grow in Ontario to get a majority.
The real and seriously under reported story of this poll is the level of uncommitted, and soft commitment levels. The hype on the Cons level of commitment is part of the total of 7% of all Canadians who are strongly committed to a party at this time. The Con supporters who are committed true believers are no more committed than Liberals, NDP or Greens, there are just slightly more of them in the 7% total for the country. That is no reason to leap to calling an election result.
The facts are that 27% are not committed, and 67% are moderately or loosely committed. That means 2/3 of Canadians are swing voters. This means the voter is volatile and in a vile mood. Call an early and unnecessary election at your peril Mr. Layton. Pander to regionalism and prefer stimulus funds to your pals in Conservative ridings at your peril Mr. Harper. Be passive aggressive and vaguely defined at your peril Mr. Ignatieff. As for Ms. May, just get into the House of Commons next election and you win.
Showing posts with label May. Show all posts
Showing posts with label May. Show all posts
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Thursday, October 09, 2008
May Disses Duffy After the Debates
Thanks to Daveberta the clip where Elizabeth May rips Mike Duffy a new one.
It is high time this happened. The misinformation, false framing and infotainment feeding frenzy that we see in "authoratiative media" these days has to be called.
We need journalism to return to its roots. With the free for all anonymous riddled blogosphere we need authoritative journalism more than ever. Please MSM get back to honouring the basic principles of ethical journalism as a hallmark of news and commentary. Democracy needs it and citiznes should demand it.
Good for Lizzie May. She took a axe and gave Mike Duffy 40 whacks. Good for her. I hope this is not the last time she calls out shoddy professional journalism.
I am voting Liberal and sending the Greens a cheque.
It is high time this happened. The misinformation, false framing and infotainment feeding frenzy that we see in "authoratiative media" these days has to be called.
We need journalism to return to its roots. With the free for all anonymous riddled blogosphere we need authoritative journalism more than ever. Please MSM get back to honouring the basic principles of ethical journalism as a hallmark of news and commentary. Democracy needs it and citiznes should demand it.
Good for Lizzie May. She took a axe and gave Mike Duffy 40 whacks. Good for her. I hope this is not the last time she calls out shoddy professional journalism.
I am voting Liberal and sending the Greens a cheque.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Cherniak on Politics - Is There Layton/Harper Collusion?
Cherniak on Politics
Here is an interesting set of clips that makes one think. Layton wants a Harper minority with him in the balance of power. Hence his vehemence about siding with Harper to exclude May from the debates.
Canadians were enraged by both of them and they folded like old lawn chairs...but the mutual benefit of feigning a fight is still being played out on the political stage.
Layton is betraying NDP principles and is after personal political power just as much and aggressively as Harper is.
So much for Mr. Social Justice. This strategy by Jack Layton is going to erode his personal credibility and tie his trustworthiness to the same level as Harper...virtually Zero.
Here is an interesting set of clips that makes one think. Layton wants a Harper minority with him in the balance of power. Hence his vehemence about siding with Harper to exclude May from the debates.
Canadians were enraged by both of them and they folded like old lawn chairs...but the mutual benefit of feigning a fight is still being played out on the political stage.
Layton is betraying NDP principles and is after personal political power just as much and aggressively as Harper is.
So much for Mr. Social Justice. This strategy by Jack Layton is going to erode his personal credibility and tie his trustworthiness to the same level as Harper...virtually Zero.
Friday, April 27, 2007
Who Can We Trust on Climate Change
UPDATE APRIL 30 - LINK BYFIELD of the Citizens Centre for Freedom and Democracy says "Between Harper and Stelmach, We have been Sold Out on Climate Change.
UPDATE APRIL 28 - AL GORE SAYS HARPER GREEN PLAN IS A FRAUD INTENDED TO MISLEAD CANADIANS!
I was going to do a post today on who are we to believe on the environment. The mainline federal political parties all have some serious baggage but we need to think about the current changes we need to make to ensure our future as one of the survive species on this planet. Who in the current political culture is into that frame of mind? The Greens and Elizabeth May are for sure and Dion as a person is into this too obviously. I am not sure about Dion's party position though. Harper is not credible and Layton seems to be into the environment as a lever for policy influence more than an genuine engagement.
Instead of doing a post myself I ran across a really insightful and informative post on this topic. It comes from the blog Democratic Space. It is a worth a read.
The polls are showing we are so volatile as a public that they are useless in accurately predicting anything about our collective political future. In the meantime, without the silly seasons elections create, the conversations on climate change still have to happen. They have to happen in different context and the content has to change too. We have to engage more citizens and become broader and more inclusive and more informed on these issues.
Politics does not seem to be capable of ding this for us at this time. Too bad because all the decisions on these issues are going to be political at the end of the day.
UPDATE APRIL 28 - AL GORE SAYS HARPER GREEN PLAN IS A FRAUD INTENDED TO MISLEAD CANADIANS!
I was going to do a post today on who are we to believe on the environment. The mainline federal political parties all have some serious baggage but we need to think about the current changes we need to make to ensure our future as one of the survive species on this planet. Who in the current political culture is into that frame of mind? The Greens and Elizabeth May are for sure and Dion as a person is into this too obviously. I am not sure about Dion's party position though. Harper is not credible and Layton seems to be into the environment as a lever for policy influence more than an genuine engagement.
Instead of doing a post myself I ran across a really insightful and informative post on this topic. It comes from the blog Democratic Space. It is a worth a read.
The polls are showing we are so volatile as a public that they are useless in accurately predicting anything about our collective political future. In the meantime, without the silly seasons elections create, the conversations on climate change still have to happen. They have to happen in different context and the content has to change too. We have to engage more citizens and become broader and more inclusive and more informed on these issues.
Politics does not seem to be capable of ding this for us at this time. Too bad because all the decisions on these issues are going to be political at the end of the day.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Why I Like Elizabeth May - Her Humanity.
Blogger Politque Vert provides a delightful interview with Elizabeth May done by a Law student at the U of S. Be sure you are not on medication – or other mind altering substances – when you look at this video…the camera work is pre-amateurish but the hearts are big and in the right place.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
The Alberta Budget Means the Week Ahead is Going to be Interesting
ELIZABETH MAY'S BLOG IS NOW LINK TO THIS SITE!
Adding Elizabeth May to my links should help Progressives who read this Blog to stay current with May's campaign and encourage them to learn more about her and the Greens. I am still thinking there is no pending federal election. This gives Dion and May time to establish themselves and to become better known. They sure need the time.
My sense is the more we learn about Harper the less trusted he will become. The more we learn about Dion and May the more we will come to respect them and the more we will learn about the critical issues and needs to adapt to climate change.
THE SLOW MOVING TSUNAMI THAT IS MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE
We have done some initial reviews of the community workshop findings out of the first leg of the Grande Alberta Economic region road show. We are in these communities talking to the full range of local interests and gathering insight and input from the key Alberta communities who will be hit the hardest. We are on the road again tomorrow starting in Drayton Valley then Whitecourt and finally Grande Cache.
The economic and environmental concerns are being looked at and considered in many ways by the province and the feds. The social impacts on the communities and this region are also important and have to be integrated into any mitigation and adaptation strategy. That effort really has to come from the commuities on a bottom up approach along iwth the top down from the senior orders of government.
Prevention of the beetle is futile. Mitigation can only buy time but not stop it. Adaptation is the key and time is of the essence with some estimates of peak infestation in the province coming in as little as five years. One thing is for sure, our forests are going to change as a result of the Mountain Pine beetle The industies and commuities that rely on them are going to have to adapt significantly to the new reality.
The beetle is now in Banff and Jasper and the policy there is to use prescribed burning to combat the infestation. Our National Parks are sources of great pride for Canadians. The reality of the Mountain Pine Beetle and its consequences means the mountain parks in Alberta are going to change and potentially very radically and very soon.
SMOKE FREE ALBERTA IS GETTING ACTIVE
The coalition of various groups and agencies are now well organized. They are focused on gting legislated smoking bans in work and public places and to support the Alberta Minister of Health and Wellness Dave Hancock in this part of his wellness agenda. This is not a new idea in Alberta but in the past four attempts to legislate these changes it was opposed the Alberta government under Ralph Klien who always killed it at the political level.
Premier Stelmach and Minister Hancock are keen to see it pass this time but the Premier has said the matter must still have Caucus support to proceed. Hancock is gearing up to initiate the internal political process to legislate the public and work places ban, remove tobacco sales from pharmacies and control the"powerwalls" displays in stores where tobacco products are sold.
One suggestion from a citizen was that tobacco should only be sold in liquor stores making it a destination purchase and not a convenience purchase. He also noted who would risk their liquor license by selling tobacco products to a minor? Polls show Albertans what this to happen. It's about health and it's about time.
IT IS BUDGET WEEK IN ALBERTA
There is lots of anticipation surrounding the Stelmach government's first Budget. The disability community throughtout Alberta for example is looking for significant new dollars to recruit and retain staff that are at dangerously low levels. They have been meeting with MLAs Ministers and officials and have been told that new money is coming in the Budget. They are in a wait and see mode right now and nervously "holding their breath" for Budget details.
The situation is quite dire in many cases due primarily to the lack of funding levels to enable this sector to provide competative pay levels. The recent group home fire in Edmonton that resulted in a fatality of a disabled person was fully staffed and well operated at th etime of this tragedy. There are staff level shortages in many service providers all over Alberta that would not be able to deal with such an emergency effectively. It is that critical in too many cases in service provider capacity to meet service needs of their clients.
The political culture in Alberta that resulted from ten years of budget cuts and five years of political lethargy has to be changed. We see that Premier Stelmach is intellectually and emotionally ready to make the changes and he has initiated a wave of consultations and initiatives since becoming Premier four short months ago.
This week we will see the Budget and that will tell us how ready he is to take the real action to assure Albertans we have a new and very different kind of progressive government. I am looking forward optimisticaly to the Budget Speech on April 19th as both a partisan and as a citizen.
Recommend this Post to Progressive Bloggers
Adding Elizabeth May to my links should help Progressives who read this Blog to stay current with May's campaign and encourage them to learn more about her and the Greens. I am still thinking there is no pending federal election. This gives Dion and May time to establish themselves and to become better known. They sure need the time.
My sense is the more we learn about Harper the less trusted he will become. The more we learn about Dion and May the more we will come to respect them and the more we will learn about the critical issues and needs to adapt to climate change.
THE SLOW MOVING TSUNAMI THAT IS MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE
We have done some initial reviews of the community workshop findings out of the first leg of the Grande Alberta Economic region road show. We are in these communities talking to the full range of local interests and gathering insight and input from the key Alberta communities who will be hit the hardest. We are on the road again tomorrow starting in Drayton Valley then Whitecourt and finally Grande Cache.
The economic and environmental concerns are being looked at and considered in many ways by the province and the feds. The social impacts on the communities and this region are also important and have to be integrated into any mitigation and adaptation strategy. That effort really has to come from the commuities on a bottom up approach along iwth the top down from the senior orders of government.
Prevention of the beetle is futile. Mitigation can only buy time but not stop it. Adaptation is the key and time is of the essence with some estimates of peak infestation in the province coming in as little as five years. One thing is for sure, our forests are going to change as a result of the Mountain Pine beetle The industies and commuities that rely on them are going to have to adapt significantly to the new reality.
The beetle is now in Banff and Jasper and the policy there is to use prescribed burning to combat the infestation. Our National Parks are sources of great pride for Canadians. The reality of the Mountain Pine Beetle and its consequences means the mountain parks in Alberta are going to change and potentially very radically and very soon.
SMOKE FREE ALBERTA IS GETTING ACTIVE
The coalition of various groups and agencies are now well organized. They are focused on gting legislated smoking bans in work and public places and to support the Alberta Minister of Health and Wellness Dave Hancock in this part of his wellness agenda. This is not a new idea in Alberta but in the past four attempts to legislate these changes it was opposed the Alberta government under Ralph Klien who always killed it at the political level.
Premier Stelmach and Minister Hancock are keen to see it pass this time but the Premier has said the matter must still have Caucus support to proceed. Hancock is gearing up to initiate the internal political process to legislate the public and work places ban, remove tobacco sales from pharmacies and control the"powerwalls" displays in stores where tobacco products are sold.
One suggestion from a citizen was that tobacco should only be sold in liquor stores making it a destination purchase and not a convenience purchase. He also noted who would risk their liquor license by selling tobacco products to a minor? Polls show Albertans what this to happen. It's about health and it's about time.
IT IS BUDGET WEEK IN ALBERTA
There is lots of anticipation surrounding the Stelmach government's first Budget. The disability community throughtout Alberta for example is looking for significant new dollars to recruit and retain staff that are at dangerously low levels. They have been meeting with MLAs Ministers and officials and have been told that new money is coming in the Budget. They are in a wait and see mode right now and nervously "holding their breath" for Budget details.
The situation is quite dire in many cases due primarily to the lack of funding levels to enable this sector to provide competative pay levels. The recent group home fire in Edmonton that resulted in a fatality of a disabled person was fully staffed and well operated at th etime of this tragedy. There are staff level shortages in many service providers all over Alberta that would not be able to deal with such an emergency effectively. It is that critical in too many cases in service provider capacity to meet service needs of their clients.
The political culture in Alberta that resulted from ten years of budget cuts and five years of political lethargy has to be changed. We see that Premier Stelmach is intellectually and emotionally ready to make the changes and he has initiated a wave of consultations and initiatives since becoming Premier four short months ago.
This week we will see the Budget and that will tell us how ready he is to take the real action to assure Albertans we have a new and very different kind of progressive government. I am looking forward optimisticaly to the Budget Speech on April 19th as both a partisan and as a citizen.
Recommend this Post to Progressive Bloggers
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Good for Dion and May
It is time to get serious about the implications of the Dion/May so-called Red/Green show. I have been waiting for this liaison to consummate for some time now. I am delighted as a Canadian to see a new politics start to crystallize with this collaboration. Who would not trade Lizzie for Belinda if you were serous about the future and good governance of the country?
I have scanned a smattering of blogs on this issue and listened to the local Liberal Party president Allan Armsworthy interview on the House this morning. He is a most reasonable and enlightened man in my opinion. It is worth a listen.
As for disenfranchising Liberal voters in Central Nova constituency well yes that may be true for a few folks but we are dealing with the Law of Small Numbers here. Everyone who voted Liberal, or for any other party for that matter, is not one of “them” and they did not decide to "join the party" as a result of their vote. They are just ordinary citizens who voted in a certain way and who made their decision based on any number of individual motivating drivers. Old thinking MSM seems to believe everyone who voted Liberal is a Liberal and they will be upset and disenfranchised. "Out of touch" is the kindest thing one can say about such superficial observations.
The real world sees about 3% of Canadians actually belonging to political parties...that is all of them combined. So those gladiator Liberal members in Central Nova, if you are ticked…go ahead and cry a river of angst and anguish but you know you will get over it. Besides May could well be the best Liberal you can muster as a preferred candidate anyway.
Political parties have too much power and influence given the sparse and clubby nature of the usually exclusive activist membership. That is true of all political parties these days. This focus on local party membership reaction over this collaboration is not the main issue at play here.
What is truly wonderful about this unconventional collaboration of Dion and May is just that. It is collaboration not a confrontation and it is based on an expression of personal convictions and values. This “unusual” move by Dion and May is not about power politics, the cult of personality or adversarial partisanship. It is not a back room deal and Layton has to desperately characterize it. It is about two pragmatic people with leadership ability, a depth of character and with genuine convictions who want to make a difference acting strategically. I applaud the move.
Lets face it we have a plethora of McKay types in the House of Commons and a dearth of May types. This is a designed effort towards creating a potential for a greater diversity of voices that the first past the post approach will not deliver. This is in and of itself enough to make this collaboration worthy of praise.
We live in a relational world not a hierarchical one any more. That maybe news to Harper but I doubt it. My guess is Harper just does not want to network with his own Caucus. He wants to command and control them. Given the value set and loose cannon proclivities of many of them, one can hardly blame Harper.
Dion and May on the other hand are post-conventional politicians and the first wave of a new kind of politics. Their collaboration is the first tangible sign of a new political order emerging. Heaven knows we need one.
ongratulations to both of them for this courage and wisdom. I expect we will see Canada better served because of this initiative. If not this coming election, then the next one for sure.
Recommend this Post at Progressive Blogger
I have scanned a smattering of blogs on this issue and listened to the local Liberal Party president Allan Armsworthy interview on the House this morning. He is a most reasonable and enlightened man in my opinion. It is worth a listen.
As for disenfranchising Liberal voters in Central Nova constituency well yes that may be true for a few folks but we are dealing with the Law of Small Numbers here. Everyone who voted Liberal, or for any other party for that matter, is not one of “them” and they did not decide to "join the party" as a result of their vote. They are just ordinary citizens who voted in a certain way and who made their decision based on any number of individual motivating drivers. Old thinking MSM seems to believe everyone who voted Liberal is a Liberal and they will be upset and disenfranchised. "Out of touch" is the kindest thing one can say about such superficial observations.
The real world sees about 3% of Canadians actually belonging to political parties...that is all of them combined. So those gladiator Liberal members in Central Nova, if you are ticked…go ahead and cry a river of angst and anguish but you know you will get over it. Besides May could well be the best Liberal you can muster as a preferred candidate anyway.
Political parties have too much power and influence given the sparse and clubby nature of the usually exclusive activist membership. That is true of all political parties these days. This focus on local party membership reaction over this collaboration is not the main issue at play here.
What is truly wonderful about this unconventional collaboration of Dion and May is just that. It is collaboration not a confrontation and it is based on an expression of personal convictions and values. This “unusual” move by Dion and May is not about power politics, the cult of personality or adversarial partisanship. It is not a back room deal and Layton has to desperately characterize it. It is about two pragmatic people with leadership ability, a depth of character and with genuine convictions who want to make a difference acting strategically. I applaud the move.
Lets face it we have a plethora of McKay types in the House of Commons and a dearth of May types. This is a designed effort towards creating a potential for a greater diversity of voices that the first past the post approach will not deliver. This is in and of itself enough to make this collaboration worthy of praise.
We live in a relational world not a hierarchical one any more. That maybe news to Harper but I doubt it. My guess is Harper just does not want to network with his own Caucus. He wants to command and control them. Given the value set and loose cannon proclivities of many of them, one can hardly blame Harper.
Dion and May on the other hand are post-conventional politicians and the first wave of a new kind of politics. Their collaboration is the first tangible sign of a new political order emerging. Heaven knows we need one.
ongratulations to both of them for this courage and wisdom. I expect we will see Canada better served because of this initiative. If not this coming election, then the next one for sure.
Recommend this Post at Progressive Blogger
Sunday, April 08, 2007
Harper Still Falls Short - According to SES Poll Results Today.
SES has just released a new poll. Nice to see a poll that relates to pre-budget and post-budget periods with sufficient time lapse to neutralize the impact of the media coverage bounce. Also nice to see nothing much has changed since Jan 2006 election results with respect to the relative position of the parties. Decima is a bit different and the Cons love to jump on one result and call it a trend. All other recent polling shows about the same-old-same-old results as in Jan 2006 and this SES poll.
At least Dion has maintained the Liberal position and the Cons are still unable to capitalize on the power inherent in holding office. In fact they are tied within the polls margin of error, if you want to take an optimistic view. Harper only wants an election if he can appear to be pushed into it. Give us a year more to see who Dion is and capable of, the same goes for what May stands for and if Layton can escape the gravitational pull of the NDP past.
The Cons have been able to buy an 8 point bounce in Quebec for about $4.0B in booty if you include the aerospace $900M announced this week. How long will that last with Charest saying it is not enough and a Quebec minority meaning they will be in constant campaign mode there.
The other regional results are telling too. The other key battle front is Ontario which sees the NDP and Greens eroding support and going from the highest uncommitted vote to the average...all of this repositioned support is split between the two major parties who are now neck and neck.
The West is most interesting where the Liberals have a 5 positive point bounce and the Cons are static and only 6 points up on the Libs. What is going on there? The West got nothing from the budget except dismay that Harper has turned into the kind of Quebec pandering politician that spawned the Reform Party in the first place. How much can he alienate his base before he starts to see them staying home or sending a harsher message over his CPC leadership status? That grumpiness about Harper is just below the surface...expect Ted and Link Byfield to be the lightening rods to hunt Harper down on this front.
Poor old Atlantic Canada can't quite grasp the changes or is it that they have the best contrarian perspective on what things are happening? They keep the Cons at bay with tepid but no change in support and they reduce Lib support giving it to the NCP and the Greens and then have over a 50% bounce in uncommitted voters at 11%. For those Maritimers who can't figure out if Harper is going to "punch or bore" them - relax - he is going to do both to you. You count even less in Harper's sense of Canada than the West does, meaning he does not understand nor does he care much about your wants and wishes as Canadians.
In conclusion nothing has changed in the minds of Canadians in the past 15 months as to keeping a minority government or if it is time for a new majority...but 64% of Canadians in an Angus Reid study says now it not the time for an election.
One big shift we have seen happen since Harper took power. We have a Prime Minister who has demonstrated very forcefully that he and his PMO is the absolute controlling factor in his Party. We also can see that his agenda is to achieve personal political power over the country with Harper as Canada's Cromwell. He will do this at any cost, be it cash, conflict, conspiracy or our national sense of social cohesion.
An Ipsos Reid study recently indicated 65% of Canadians felt they did no know Stephen Harper as a person...in other words who he is and what he believes in and stands for. This is after over 5 years of seeing him in federal political leadership roles. Well in the past 6 months we have seen his tactics from broken campaign promises (Income Trusts and Equalization for example) to hypocrisy on others (wait time guarantees to disregarding the need for child care spaces), to buying Quebec support (the Budget) and a bullying political personality (personal attack ads to cheap-shot Taliban supporter accusations) in how he tries to marginalize and intimidate people.
We can now tell much more about who Harper really is. To my mind he is much scarier than we thought than even in the 2004 election. The key questions for Canadians about Harper is do we trust him? Does he "get the country" and does he have a serious grasp of the critical issues of our time - like the environment? Can we rely on him to keep his promises? Given his obvious hunger for power do we feel he is the right "fit" to be our Prime Minister with a majority government given all the discretion and power of that office? Does he have the kind of character qualities we want to see govern us as a modern mature citizen based democracy?
These polls show Canadians have not yet made up their minds on how they would answer these questions. I have. My answer is no on all counts.
At least Dion has maintained the Liberal position and the Cons are still unable to capitalize on the power inherent in holding office. In fact they are tied within the polls margin of error, if you want to take an optimistic view. Harper only wants an election if he can appear to be pushed into it. Give us a year more to see who Dion is and capable of, the same goes for what May stands for and if Layton can escape the gravitational pull of the NDP past.
The Cons have been able to buy an 8 point bounce in Quebec for about $4.0B in booty if you include the aerospace $900M announced this week. How long will that last with Charest saying it is not enough and a Quebec minority meaning they will be in constant campaign mode there.
The other regional results are telling too. The other key battle front is Ontario which sees the NDP and Greens eroding support and going from the highest uncommitted vote to the average...all of this repositioned support is split between the two major parties who are now neck and neck.
The West is most interesting where the Liberals have a 5 positive point bounce and the Cons are static and only 6 points up on the Libs. What is going on there? The West got nothing from the budget except dismay that Harper has turned into the kind of Quebec pandering politician that spawned the Reform Party in the first place. How much can he alienate his base before he starts to see them staying home or sending a harsher message over his CPC leadership status? That grumpiness about Harper is just below the surface...expect Ted and Link Byfield to be the lightening rods to hunt Harper down on this front.
Poor old Atlantic Canada can't quite grasp the changes or is it that they have the best contrarian perspective on what things are happening? They keep the Cons at bay with tepid but no change in support and they reduce Lib support giving it to the NCP and the Greens and then have over a 50% bounce in uncommitted voters at 11%. For those Maritimers who can't figure out if Harper is going to "punch or bore" them - relax - he is going to do both to you. You count even less in Harper's sense of Canada than the West does, meaning he does not understand nor does he care much about your wants and wishes as Canadians.
In conclusion nothing has changed in the minds of Canadians in the past 15 months as to keeping a minority government or if it is time for a new majority...but 64% of Canadians in an Angus Reid study says now it not the time for an election.
One big shift we have seen happen since Harper took power. We have a Prime Minister who has demonstrated very forcefully that he and his PMO is the absolute controlling factor in his Party. We also can see that his agenda is to achieve personal political power over the country with Harper as Canada's Cromwell. He will do this at any cost, be it cash, conflict, conspiracy or our national sense of social cohesion.
An Ipsos Reid study recently indicated 65% of Canadians felt they did no know Stephen Harper as a person...in other words who he is and what he believes in and stands for. This is after over 5 years of seeing him in federal political leadership roles. Well in the past 6 months we have seen his tactics from broken campaign promises (Income Trusts and Equalization for example) to hypocrisy on others (wait time guarantees to disregarding the need for child care spaces), to buying Quebec support (the Budget) and a bullying political personality (personal attack ads to cheap-shot Taliban supporter accusations) in how he tries to marginalize and intimidate people.
We can now tell much more about who Harper really is. To my mind he is much scarier than we thought than even in the 2004 election. The key questions for Canadians about Harper is do we trust him? Does he "get the country" and does he have a serious grasp of the critical issues of our time - like the environment? Can we rely on him to keep his promises? Given his obvious hunger for power do we feel he is the right "fit" to be our Prime Minister with a majority government given all the discretion and power of that office? Does he have the kind of character qualities we want to see govern us as a modern mature citizen based democracy?
These polls show Canadians have not yet made up their minds on how they would answer these questions. I have. My answer is no on all counts.
Sunday, March 18, 2007
Ten Reasons Why We Should Not Have a Spring Election
There are many reason why we should not have a spring election. Here are my top 10!
1 There are too many pieces of Harper’s 5 point plan in still in the legislative process. They have not had the time to get passed into law like his crime and punishment, health care wait times, accountability and the policy flux around child care spaces. He had a modest agenda and has not had time to deliver. We will have wasted the past year if we have an early election.
2 None of the parties are really ready to go because they are still all finding their policy footing. The Cons have the money, even though they are pitching the party faithful for emergency funds for a pending election. The Cons are currently so busy reintroducing and repackaging prior Liberal polices they need time to convince Canadians they are still the “new” government and not just a lighter version of an old-style Liberal government.
3 Candidate selection is in process for all parties and there is plenty of posturing, including candidate colleges in some parties. But thoughtful and quality candidates need more time to consider running or not. Rushing this process ensures we will have less than optimum candidates offering their “talents” to serve in governance.
4 Party leaders are all ill-defined in the public mind. Polls show we don’t really know nor do we have a clear sense of who Harper is after 5 years back in leadership in the federal political scene. His recent election promises breaches and his epiphany over the environment from a climate change denier to becoming the new super hero “Eco-man” is causing even more uncertainty as to who he really is. Dion is a known environmentalist and federalist but an unknown as a leader even within his party. Layton is seen as an issues broker but undefined and unfocused and still an unknown as a political leader. May is too new and untested and leading a party that is more unknown than even she is but that will change when the next election happens.
5 The national political agenda is too vague and amorphous so we don’t know what this election would be about other than Harper trying to get a majority. Polls are telling us Canadians are unclear if they even want a majority government, of any stripe, as yet. The environment has turned into a lightening rod and all parties have the poll results that have them crowding to the middle ground and bumping into each other like a Keystone Kops comedy. None of this is helping to gain the confidence of the Canadian voter for any political party right now.
6 Volatility and uncertainty in the mind of the voters is apparent in the polls as of late. Except for about 65% saying they do not want spring election and the environment as the #1 issue, nothing is certain or even ascertainable as to exactly what the public wants of its government today. Canadians are not yet over their “test drive” attitude towards the Cons from the last election. In 2006 Canadians elected a minority government on purpose and those purposes have not yet been served. Anyone who causes the election for superficial reasons will be punished in the polls. Any spring election will not be perceived as being about the wishes of the people but about the egos and thirst for power of politicians.
7 We need time to see if Harper will be serious about his budget promises and just how authentic he is about his conversion and version of vert-nouveau. Announcements of program funding and rhetorical political promises are one thing, action and outcomes are entirely different matters
8 We need to wait for some provincial elections to happen and the implications they hold for the future nation to be understood. For sure we will need time to digest the Quebec election outcomes and especially what a minority government in Quebec might mean. We need to understand those implications and even perhaps wait for the elections in Ontario and Alberta to go first because they would be helpful to set some political agendas for the nation and give the federal scene time to focus and define.
9 There needs to be time for the actual outcomes of Harper’s promise to deal with the perception within Quebec of a Fiscal Imbalance and how he will deal with it in fact, and not fiction. We need time to see the real Stephen Harper and his actual execution of policies around equalization and per capita transfers to provinces and how he will actually proceed to decentralize governance to favour the provinces.
10 Finally why are we wasting the time and money for an election when there is no pressing need and no clear issue demanding a mandated resolution? We have yet to see significant real results from Harper and that is not because he has not been trying. He has.
We as Canadians need more time for Harper to prove himself to be worthy of the al powerful position of Prime Minister in a majority government. He wants to afford us less time for that to happen and that is why he is pressing for an early but pointless and likely inconclusive election this spring.
Harper is worried that over time this summer, Dion will become better known, more defined and respected as a political leader. Layton has the same fears over the emergence of May and the Greens who might eat even more of his lunch with more time to become known, defined and respected.
Dion and May need more time to become established and organized so they will not be anxious to go early and they will hold their noses and vote for the budget. Besides they can benefit by seeing the Harper budget and green plan and taking time to comment on the merits and question the Cons actual commitment to the policies they propose. Past actions tend to show the Cons are just that; con-artists on policy and political promises.
Consequently, I expect Harper will try to engineer his demise this spring and if Layton is nervous enough about the Greens and May he will oblige the Cons and force an election. It will not be on the Cons budget but rather on their environment proposals that Layton will see the reason to cause an election.
1 There are too many pieces of Harper’s 5 point plan in still in the legislative process. They have not had the time to get passed into law like his crime and punishment, health care wait times, accountability and the policy flux around child care spaces. He had a modest agenda and has not had time to deliver. We will have wasted the past year if we have an early election.
2 None of the parties are really ready to go because they are still all finding their policy footing. The Cons have the money, even though they are pitching the party faithful for emergency funds for a pending election. The Cons are currently so busy reintroducing and repackaging prior Liberal polices they need time to convince Canadians they are still the “new” government and not just a lighter version of an old-style Liberal government.
3 Candidate selection is in process for all parties and there is plenty of posturing, including candidate colleges in some parties. But thoughtful and quality candidates need more time to consider running or not. Rushing this process ensures we will have less than optimum candidates offering their “talents” to serve in governance.
4 Party leaders are all ill-defined in the public mind. Polls show we don’t really know nor do we have a clear sense of who Harper is after 5 years back in leadership in the federal political scene. His recent election promises breaches and his epiphany over the environment from a climate change denier to becoming the new super hero “Eco-man” is causing even more uncertainty as to who he really is. Dion is a known environmentalist and federalist but an unknown as a leader even within his party. Layton is seen as an issues broker but undefined and unfocused and still an unknown as a political leader. May is too new and untested and leading a party that is more unknown than even she is but that will change when the next election happens.
5 The national political agenda is too vague and amorphous so we don’t know what this election would be about other than Harper trying to get a majority. Polls are telling us Canadians are unclear if they even want a majority government, of any stripe, as yet. The environment has turned into a lightening rod and all parties have the poll results that have them crowding to the middle ground and bumping into each other like a Keystone Kops comedy. None of this is helping to gain the confidence of the Canadian voter for any political party right now.
6 Volatility and uncertainty in the mind of the voters is apparent in the polls as of late. Except for about 65% saying they do not want spring election and the environment as the #1 issue, nothing is certain or even ascertainable as to exactly what the public wants of its government today. Canadians are not yet over their “test drive” attitude towards the Cons from the last election. In 2006 Canadians elected a minority government on purpose and those purposes have not yet been served. Anyone who causes the election for superficial reasons will be punished in the polls. Any spring election will not be perceived as being about the wishes of the people but about the egos and thirst for power of politicians.
7 We need time to see if Harper will be serious about his budget promises and just how authentic he is about his conversion and version of vert-nouveau. Announcements of program funding and rhetorical political promises are one thing, action and outcomes are entirely different matters
8 We need to wait for some provincial elections to happen and the implications they hold for the future nation to be understood. For sure we will need time to digest the Quebec election outcomes and especially what a minority government in Quebec might mean. We need to understand those implications and even perhaps wait for the elections in Ontario and Alberta to go first because they would be helpful to set some political agendas for the nation and give the federal scene time to focus and define.
9 There needs to be time for the actual outcomes of Harper’s promise to deal with the perception within Quebec of a Fiscal Imbalance and how he will deal with it in fact, and not fiction. We need time to see the real Stephen Harper and his actual execution of policies around equalization and per capita transfers to provinces and how he will actually proceed to decentralize governance to favour the provinces.
10 Finally why are we wasting the time and money for an election when there is no pressing need and no clear issue demanding a mandated resolution? We have yet to see significant real results from Harper and that is not because he has not been trying. He has.
We as Canadians need more time for Harper to prove himself to be worthy of the al powerful position of Prime Minister in a majority government. He wants to afford us less time for that to happen and that is why he is pressing for an early but pointless and likely inconclusive election this spring.
Harper is worried that over time this summer, Dion will become better known, more defined and respected as a political leader. Layton has the same fears over the emergence of May and the Greens who might eat even more of his lunch with more time to become known, defined and respected.
Dion and May need more time to become established and organized so they will not be anxious to go early and they will hold their noses and vote for the budget. Besides they can benefit by seeing the Harper budget and green plan and taking time to comment on the merits and question the Cons actual commitment to the policies they propose. Past actions tend to show the Cons are just that; con-artists on policy and political promises.
Consequently, I expect Harper will try to engineer his demise this spring and if Layton is nervous enough about the Greens and May he will oblige the Cons and force an election. It will not be on the Cons budget but rather on their environment proposals that Layton will see the reason to cause an election.
Monday, February 12, 2007
Leadership Report Card Poll Shows Harper is Growing into the Job
So some more poll results are out that are adding to the fact that the predominant mood out there is confusion. And these results just add to the confusion so far as I can tell.
The SES Research National Survey poll today based on1002 participants between Feb2-8 on the “Leadership Report Card.” notes that Stephen Harper has “significantly improved” his leadership image in the year plus a bit since he was elected. His trustworthiness is up 14 points to 35%, his competence rating is up 17 points to 41% and the impression of his vision for the country is up 14 points to 39%. Clearly Stephen Harper is showing signs of growing into the job of Prime Minister over the past year. The January 2006 comparative results had only 400 participants so the margin of error was higher.
The Layton numbers have to be sobering with a 7% decline in trustworthiness to 18%, a 4% decline in competence to 13% and a 2% decline to 16% for having an acceptable vision of the country.
The poll numbers on Dion and May are pretty meaningless in terms of personal assessments. This is because of the party leadership changes that happened in November and December. The polls is asking the same questions about a time frame that actually had other people in the party leadership and only having a few weeks to become known, including the Christmas period. When we ask about trustworthiness during a time of transition from a Martin/Dion and a Harris/May change in leadership, what is it people are actually saying in their replies? Who is it that they are really speaking about in terms of trust, competence and vision when they answer?
It appears that Harper is growing into the job and Layton is growing out of one. Not much else can be interpreted from this poll and lots can be speculated. Speculation has like to add to any real meaning and understanding.
The Angus Reid poll out today on “Harper and Dion Who is the Greenest?” has more insight into what is on the minds and what is meaningful to voters. I will do a separate post on this poll shortly.
The SES Research National Survey poll today based on1002 participants between Feb2-8 on the “Leadership Report Card.” notes that Stephen Harper has “significantly improved” his leadership image in the year plus a bit since he was elected. His trustworthiness is up 14 points to 35%, his competence rating is up 17 points to 41% and the impression of his vision for the country is up 14 points to 39%. Clearly Stephen Harper is showing signs of growing into the job of Prime Minister over the past year. The January 2006 comparative results had only 400 participants so the margin of error was higher.
The Layton numbers have to be sobering with a 7% decline in trustworthiness to 18%, a 4% decline in competence to 13% and a 2% decline to 16% for having an acceptable vision of the country.
The poll numbers on Dion and May are pretty meaningless in terms of personal assessments. This is because of the party leadership changes that happened in November and December. The polls is asking the same questions about a time frame that actually had other people in the party leadership and only having a few weeks to become known, including the Christmas period. When we ask about trustworthiness during a time of transition from a Martin/Dion and a Harris/May change in leadership, what is it people are actually saying in their replies? Who is it that they are really speaking about in terms of trust, competence and vision when they answer?
It appears that Harper is growing into the job and Layton is growing out of one. Not much else can be interpreted from this poll and lots can be speculated. Speculation has like to add to any real meaning and understanding.
The Angus Reid poll out today on “Harper and Dion Who is the Greenest?” has more insight into what is on the minds and what is meaningful to voters. I will do a separate post on this poll shortly.
Thursday, February 01, 2007
Climate Change: Waking Up and Catching Up!
This fellow looks like he is watching the declining quality of political discourse over climate change too and, given the pose and look on his face, he seems to be wondering what his future is going to be too.
We need a credible discussion and a serious conversation on this stuff. Too much of what is happening is cheap political theatre - from everyone except Elizabeth May. Come on gentlemen! If you feel you must "play the game" at least elevate the quality of your play.
We just did our latest column for LaPresse on the issues of climate change and the rapid rise of consciousness in Alberta. I will post it once it is publised in the newspaper.
Lets face it we need the planet more than it needs us.
We just did our latest column for LaPresse on the issues of climate change and the rapid rise of consciousness in Alberta. I will post it once it is publised in the newspaper.
Lets face it we need the planet more than it needs us.
Sunday, January 21, 2007
Dion Says the Greens Should be in the TV Debates
The Globe and Mail's Eric Reguly and Stephane Dion are calling for the Green Party to be included in any next federal election television debates. The timing of such an election is ironically within the control of the NDP based on how the seats shake down with floor crossings and caucus expulsions. My expectation is Jack Layton would be happier if the Greens were left in the Green Room and not on the stage.
The television broadcasters seem to think they should have the control over this aspect of our democracy. They get to say that if a Party does not have a seat in Parliament then you don’t get to participate in the debates. Who made them the boss of the citizens?
The environment is the #1 issue in the country right now and the Greens are the Party most identified with that issue. Besides their Leader Elizabeth May ran a very respectful second place in a recent southern Ontario By-election. She beat the Conservatives and the NDP candidates with a healthy 25% of the vote.
May and her Party are a significant and proven political force to be reckoned with. Seats should not be the only test for inclusion. Performance in voter support plays a role here too. It is no problem to include the Bloc in the debates, and their primary goal is to split up the country for God’s sake.
So regardless of your partisan politics, support the Greens being included in the debates. There is an on line petition on the Green's site. Show your support and sign up. We can show the broadcasters that they must reconsider this policy and include the Greens notwithstanding the lack of a seat.
LET'S DRAFT GARTH TURNER!
If this petition isn’t enough, let’s start a movement to draft the Independent MP, Garth Turner to join the Greens. This would be for the sole purpose of giving them a seat to “qualify” under the broadcaster’s silly rules to be for included in the debates.
I think that would be a refreshing exercise of a strategic realpolitik power play by a Turner and May tag team. It would be a perfect response to the shallow thinking of the opponents of the Greens being included. I would applaud Turner if he were to decide to stay Green or if he chooses to resign from the Greens immediately after their participation in the debates were confirmed.
I am serious about a draft Turner effort if it becomes necessary. Some times you have to fight absurdity with absurdity. It is nice when you can do it with creativity and class. But in the meantime sign the petition and let’s be sure to let the powers that be know the Canadian democracy belongs to the citizens, not the broadcasters or the politicians.
The television broadcasters seem to think they should have the control over this aspect of our democracy. They get to say that if a Party does not have a seat in Parliament then you don’t get to participate in the debates. Who made them the boss of the citizens?
The environment is the #1 issue in the country right now and the Greens are the Party most identified with that issue. Besides their Leader Elizabeth May ran a very respectful second place in a recent southern Ontario By-election. She beat the Conservatives and the NDP candidates with a healthy 25% of the vote.
May and her Party are a significant and proven political force to be reckoned with. Seats should not be the only test for inclusion. Performance in voter support plays a role here too. It is no problem to include the Bloc in the debates, and their primary goal is to split up the country for God’s sake.
So regardless of your partisan politics, support the Greens being included in the debates. There is an on line petition on the Green's site. Show your support and sign up. We can show the broadcasters that they must reconsider this policy and include the Greens notwithstanding the lack of a seat.
LET'S DRAFT GARTH TURNER!
If this petition isn’t enough, let’s start a movement to draft the Independent MP, Garth Turner to join the Greens. This would be for the sole purpose of giving them a seat to “qualify” under the broadcaster’s silly rules to be for included in the debates.
I think that would be a refreshing exercise of a strategic realpolitik power play by a Turner and May tag team. It would be a perfect response to the shallow thinking of the opponents of the Greens being included. I would applaud Turner if he were to decide to stay Green or if he chooses to resign from the Greens immediately after their participation in the debates were confirmed.
I am serious about a draft Turner effort if it becomes necessary. Some times you have to fight absurdity with absurdity. It is nice when you can do it with creativity and class. But in the meantime sign the petition and let’s be sure to let the powers that be know the Canadian democracy belongs to the citizens, not the broadcasters or the politicians.
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
What is Stephen Harper Thinking?
Nicole Martel is asking why Stephen Harper is doing so much to alienate his base in western Canada. First the income trust betrayal and now he is looking at non-renewable energy revenues as part of the calculation for equalization payment calculations, as a pander to Quebec. Saskatchewan and Alberta are upset as is Newfoundland and Danny Williams is speaking in Fort McMurray on January 27th. I am sure he will have some choice words for Prime Minister Harper on equalization formulas.
Top that off with rumours of a $1.4 Billion payment to Quebec to restore the Harper Cons position there. It won’t hurt Jean Charest either, which is a good thing with his pending election.
Wasn’t it just this kind of pandering to Quebec politics that started the Reform Party in the first place? Wasn’t Stephen Harper around then?
Then the recent Globe and Mail poll done by The Strategic Counsel is being parsed in the media for its meaning with a plethora of preconceived notions. The fact that Dion is in a horse race with Harper so shortly after a leadership change and so close to Adscam is amazing. Harper has dropped from 49% to 41% support in the west in the year since the last election. He is down 10% in Quebec from 25% to 15%. In Ontario Harper is at 32% trailing Dion at 45%.
The next election is being touted as far off because the tight race between the major parties. Lets face it the next election will be called when Jack Layton decides he is ready because he has the votes to sustain or bury Harper. So we have to watch just how much and how fast the Greens are closing in on him too.
In Ontario the Greens are up to 9% and the NDP are down to 15% since the last election. Enough said! Jack Layton can hear the Birkenstock footsteps right behind him and they are getting louder. That trend will determine the next election based as much on Jack Layton’s fear factor over Elizabeth May’s Green Party emergence.
Old line Reform/Alliance types must be shaking their heads and asking themselves “Stephen – what are you doing?”
Top that off with rumours of a $1.4 Billion payment to Quebec to restore the Harper Cons position there. It won’t hurt Jean Charest either, which is a good thing with his pending election.
Wasn’t it just this kind of pandering to Quebec politics that started the Reform Party in the first place? Wasn’t Stephen Harper around then?
Then the recent Globe and Mail poll done by The Strategic Counsel is being parsed in the media for its meaning with a plethora of preconceived notions. The fact that Dion is in a horse race with Harper so shortly after a leadership change and so close to Adscam is amazing. Harper has dropped from 49% to 41% support in the west in the year since the last election. He is down 10% in Quebec from 25% to 15%. In Ontario Harper is at 32% trailing Dion at 45%.
The next election is being touted as far off because the tight race between the major parties. Lets face it the next election will be called when Jack Layton decides he is ready because he has the votes to sustain or bury Harper. So we have to watch just how much and how fast the Greens are closing in on him too.
In Ontario the Greens are up to 9% and the NDP are down to 15% since the last election. Enough said! Jack Layton can hear the Birkenstock footsteps right behind him and they are getting louder. That trend will determine the next election based as much on Jack Layton’s fear factor over Elizabeth May’s Green Party emergence.
Old line Reform/Alliance types must be shaking their heads and asking themselves “Stephen – what are you doing?”
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