Alberta! Whose Province is it Anyway?

Kevin Taft’s excellent piece on the Alberta economy and what has happened to growth, taxes and public policy directions in our province is worth a careful and reflective read. It begs a couple of serious public policy questions about what kind of Alberta we have and who’s province is it anyway. I think I will be doing many more posts on those questions in the future.


In his op-ed piece “Public Spending Stayed Flat as Alberta Economy Grew” he “follows the money” with some very disturbing observations about the balance of power in Alberta. He underscores the lack of attention to the needs of the greater good giving way to the profligate pursuit of short term private profit by keeping taxes low to attract investment. We all want low taxes but not so low that we can’t provide for our children, our vulnerable citizens, our safety and security and preserve natural capital and expand our human capital.

Then add the absurdly low royalty rates we change our tenants on energy exploitation crown lands and you can see where most of the money from our non-renewable resources is going. To excessive private profits at the expense of the long term common good of Albertans now and in the future.

Like Taft, I agree that profits are important and a reasonable rate of return on investments relative to risk is vital to a successful economy and a viable society. What I see happening these days is the society is subservient to the economy instead of the economy being in service of the social goals of Albertans, including the environment. Our government is not the proxy of the public interest as much as it is pandering to the private interests of the energy sector as forestry, agriculture, manufacturing and innovation languish.

The argument is not about which is better, big business or big government. Neither is appropriate to solve the problems we face or to achieve our potential as a province and a people. We need an efficient adaptable sustainable private sector economy that creates real wealth for a society not just short term excessive profits for a few. And we need a values based empowering public governance model that enables and empowers citizens to achieve their personal potential in a safe, secure, adaptive, resilient and self-reliant way that also contributes to society.

I think there are two overarching critical uncertainties that cause a creative tension between our market-based capitalist economy and our responsible representative democratic society. One critical uncertainty is that we need to balance the constantly moving ground between the rights and responsibilities of individual self-interest and the collective interests of the common good. We are all in this world together and alone so how do we rationalize the various personal roles and relationships within our culture as contributing members of our society?

The other critical uncertainty we constantly grapple with is the creative debate as to what is best done in the private sector versus the public sector. Grappling with this question provides both its benefits and show the shortcomings of each alternative. I am a big fan of the market place, but only in its place , where business can flourish but not risk the need to serve the greater good where profit is an ineffective motivation. The market place strength of competition and the “invisible hand” is not the end all and be all of a health society, just one aspect.

That competitive principle is often a marketplace myth as we see the concentration of control and ownership, poor governance controls, short term thinking, greed is good attitudes and “too big to fail” corporations that need taxpayer bailouts because of their morally bankrupt, casual corruption and crass self-aggrandizing cultures. The marketplace is allowed to be blind to inequity, injustice, and prejudice – just to name a few blind spots in those “masters of the universe” types that are too often tolerated by governments who look to them for validation and contributions. Markets are supposed to be good at efficiency – they are not always! This is often our fault as consumers.

I am also a big fan of responsible democratic government that is principled, values based, focused on governance over politics and representative and concentrated on serving the best interests of voters – not themselves. We need more politicians who are intelligent, wise and courageous enough to know what they stand for, speak out clearly about it and champion causes that reflect their personal principles and values – especially at election time. We don’t have a very good record of providing a comprehensive sense of good government in Alberta. The future for comprehensive good government looks even bleaker with the few political and policy options we are being offered from the PCs and the Wildrose. Governments are supposed to be good at effectiveness – they are not always! This is often our fault as citizens because we disengage from our civic responsibilities.

So thank you Kevin Taft for this insight and analysis of what has actually been going on in Alberta’s public spending. It is a crime that we can’t seen our way to meeting our social and environmental obligations to each other and this place we call home compared to the wealth we are creating and concentrating in the big corporate sector in this province. It is a fair assessment of a situation that is not fair to Alberta’s best interests or the best interests of ordinary Albertans either.

We Albertans can only blame ourselves. We seem to have abdicated our civic duty to this place environmentally, socially and politically…hell 60% of us can’t be bothered to get up to speed on the issues and learn about the political options so we can cast an informed vote. And while we were sublimely indifferent and disengaged our government has defaulted in its duty to serve the greater good too. It has put corporate profits ahead of the public good in a short-term shallow thinking view of Alberta’s best interests. As a once proud member of the PC Party of Alberta I take no joy in saying that. We get the government we deserve in a democracy. Too bad our expectations of ourselves as Albertans have been so apathetic. Our indifference towards realizing our full potential means that we settle for so little from ourselves, our government representatives and our industry tenants.

Wake up Alberta. It is a new century and citizenship is important again. Our democracy is in danger due to your indifference and distain for politics. Politics suck because we allow them to suck. Take control of your democracy. Create some space for viable alternatives to flourish and start demanding the end of stupid rules, insipid policy and that partisan politics trumping public interest. Thanks again Kevin for shining some light on what has been going on in the Alberta economy beyond the rhetoric and partisan positioning.

Taft Throws In the Towel.

So Kevin Taft makes it official and calls it quits as Alberta Liberal Leader after two elections and some five years of service. He will stay on as MLA for Edmonton Riverview and will still be making a political contribution to the public life of Alberta presumably for the next four years.

I wonder what will happen if an outsider wins the Alberta Liberal leadership. There may be some pressure on him to retire his seat then and force a by-election to give the new leaders a chance at a seat in the Legislature. Time will tell but Edmonton Riverview is by no means a safe Liberal seat. It will have to be won by a new leader should that be the case.

Kevin Taft was always a reluctant politician and even more reluctant as a party leader. But he was always ready, willing and able to learn both jobs and prepared to make the personal sacrifices and suffer all the other impositions of public political life. He was drawn into politics on a dare from Ralph Klein who once called him a “Communist” and suggested Taft run for office instead of criticizing from the sidelines. Taft responded to the taunt and took up the challenge, running successfully as the MLA for Edmonton Riverview.

He was thrust into the leadership role by and large because nobody else wanted the job after the former leader, Nancy McBeth lost an election and was replaced by Ken Nicol who was effectively an interim leader. Taft was an academic and learned party politics and political leadership on the job and mostly from a standing start. Regardless of his electoral success, one has to give him credit for being a quick study and staying the course.

Taft’s resignation will now give the Alberta Liberal Party a chance to reflect and reconsider its place and future in Alberta politics. I am hoping they take a page or two from the Progressive Conservative Party leadership process and improve on it around concerns about donation disclosures. But I encourage them to make their leadership process open to any Albertan who wants to buy an Alberta Liberal Party membership and have a say in the leader selection. After all we are talking about selecting someone who would be at least eligible to be Premier of our province. All Albertans should be interested in helping make that choice. It would be good for democracy and the Alberta Liberals too.

The Nervous Nellies in the Alberta Liberal brain trust will worry that PC’s might encourage their supporters to buy Liberal memberships just to select the weakest Liberal leadership candidate for reasons of pure political advantage. After all some believe that was what a number of Alberta Liberals did in the last PC leadership contest.

If that was ever actually happening, or even rumoured to be the case, I am pretty sure ordinary Albertans would engage actively in the Alberta Liberal leadership selection process to ensure that would not be the end result. Such a tactic would seriously devalue the level of trust and respect citizens would afford the PC Party I expect. Stelmach has 72 seats and all the power he needs to do anything he wants within the law, including making laws pretty quickly if he wishes.

The PCs do not need to undermine the Alberta Liberals by trying to hijack the leadership selection process. It would not be worth the risk to the PC party brand to engage in such shenanigans for such puerile political purposes. So I encourage the Alberta Liberals to open up their party and let ordinary Albertans in to participate in who might lead Alberta's Loyal Opposition.

With Taft’s resignation decision the party leadership transition in all of Alberta's significant political parties is complete. Ralph Klein, Raj Pannu and now Kevin Taft are all gone or going. The Alberta they knew is pretty much history too. Alberta has become a very different place since those leaders came on the political scene.

Albertans are ready to move on to the next stage of being an Albertan. I sense that the engaged Albertan wants real changes and real choices and clearly defined alternatives in its politics going forward. They want political leadership with personal character qualities they can trust and respect. We want political leadership that is competent and capable to actually envisage, design and deliver the next Alberta in a local, provincial, national, continental - and now in a global context.

I wonder if we Albertans will be engaged enough as citizens to make such demands of the Alberta Liberal Party during the leadership process. Or are we simply so cynical as citizens that we will just disengage and ignore this opportunity to have a say about how we are to be governed and by whom…even if it is only about our opposition party leadership.

My next post will be some thoughts on the likely suspects who have indicated interest in succeeding Taft. I will speculate a bit on others who may want to seek the Alberta Liberal leadership job and who might be checking out their support levels to see if they stand a chance of winning.

I'm Betting Kevin Taft Intends to Stay On as Leader of the Alberta Liberals.

Reading Kevin Taft’s op-ed in the Edmonton Journal this Monday does not sound like a man about to leave his party’s leadership or political life for that matter.

My bet is Taft is planning on staying on as the Alberta Liberal leader and he will announce that intention on or before next Monday.


WHAT IS SO SMART ABOUT SAVE ALL THE SURPLUS IN THE HERITAGE FUND
Taft is definitely talking future forward in the op-ed and making suggestions about what to do with non-renewable resource revenue surpluses. He suggests we bank the entire $32B in estimated surpluses said to be coming the next 2 years. He says put it all right into the Heritage Savings and Trust Fund in perpetuity.

His rationale makes some short term sense. He says that while we need pubic infrastructure, we don’t need it all at once and we ought not build it in ways that cost a premium in our overheated economy and that adds to our increasing inflation. He says saving all the resource revenues is the best solution to the problem he identifies as our government not knowing how to spend these funds sensibly. Isn’t that a sad indictment of the capacity, consciousness and vision of our political class – from all parties?

WHAT ABOUT ALBERTA'S HUMAN AND NATURAL CAPITAL DEFICITS?
The problem with the total saving suggestion is that it ignores the other significant Alberta public infrastructure deficit, namely the huge and growing social infrastructure deficit. The wealth Alberta is generating is not being shared equitable with all Albertans. We are quick to note how much of our growth benefits the rest of Canada. We are myopic on the social damage the pace of growth and coagulation of cash at the top of our social food chain is having on the quality of life of ordinary Albertans.

We have our most vulnerable citizens being left on our streets like the hard to manage developmentally disabled people are being sent to hospitals because there is nobody able to meet their needs in safe and nurturing places. They are now clogging our hospitals because we don’t pay communiy based social service staff a livable wage as they try to meet the complex needs of developmentally disabled citizens. So many of the programs get cancelled and seriously at-risk people end up getting turned away and loose in our community with nowhere to go. We are recycling other less fortunate’s through our shelters, courts and correction system. We find many other vulnerable citizens like the elderly and addicted being subjected to more abuse and violence and that is making our communities unsafe and our citizens insecure.


We also need to invest more in the environmental deficit we have created with growth pressures caused by runaway oil sands development. We need to do something serious about picking up the pace reclamation and cleaning up contaminated abandoned convention oil and gas sites. We need R and D investment in new green technologies and techniques like carbon capture and sequestration and new oil sands extraction technologies making it a greener energy source.

I am all for saving a significant portion of non-renewable resource revenues and agree we can spread out our building of some public capital infrastructure projects. Alberta cannot continue to delay addressing the human, social and natural capital infrastructure deficits we have created and ignoring.

So much of our political thought these days focus on rising costs and inflation. That is part of the puzzle but not all of it because it focuses on the importance of controlling costs and ignores the enhancement of the value of what makes our lives worth living.


IT'S ABOUT MORE THAN THE ECONOMY
A strong adaptive economy is like water is to soup, necessary but not sufficient in itself. Part of the role of modern democracies is to facilitate the expression of our collective empathy over what we as a society are responsible for and what we really care about. That must include caring for people, protecting place and addressing our many predicaments as a society.

Socking some of our cash in the Heritage Fund is part of a long term inter-generational fairness solution. But to rely solely on non-renewable surpluses for savings as a fiscal policy is not a serious solution to any of the real and immediate and significant challenges we face in our society today. Using such savings as a means to merely reduce taxes is more about pandering politics than good public policy. It ends up stifling the capacity of our government to use the tax base and the growth of the economy as the means to meet our current, on-going and long term social and ecological obligations.

Saving is a virtue but not the only virtue for a society. Taxes may be just plain evil in the minds of many citizens, but we also know they are a necessary evil. Governments are supposed to find the balance for us and so far Mr. Taft's proposal for saving all our surpluses has not done that.

Looks Like Albertan's Are Back to Being "Blue-Eyed Arabs"

I find gems every now and then in Hansard. Most of my readers have lives and do not spend a lot of time on the detailed happenings in the Legislature, I do for professional reasons and often come across these gems. I will share them from time to time.

One that struck me was Kevin Taft's speech in reply to the Budget. He puts the petroleum wealth of Alberta in terms of how much there is for each Albertan. Our total reserves may be second to Saudi Arabia, which I would dispute - the Saudi's have not really updated reserve estimates for decades. Kevin Taft put reserve comparisons in per capita terms. Here is an excerpt from his speech on April 23rd:

Dr. Kevin Taft Alberta Liberal Leader - MLA Edmonton Riverview
"Alberta’s petroleum riches are even more impressive when measured against Alberta’s small population; on a per capita basis Alberta has 51,900 barrels of recoverable oil reserves, tops in the world. In other words, for our small population, per capita we have the largest oil reserves
in the world. Second is Kuwait, then the United Arab Emirates, and then Qatar. Saudi Arabia, which we always assume is incredibly wealthy in petroleum, actually ranks fifth on a list of petroleum wealth per capita. Alberta ranks first."

"I think that’s something we should all remember when we’re weighing out how we manage this
wealth. Now, that’s just oil reserves. If you add in natural gas reserves, our wealth rises even higher. Natural gas reserves are almost 57 trillion cubic feet, and there’s perhaps another 500 trillion cubic feet of coal-bed methane. So we have here staggering wealth."

Iris Evans in a recent speech to the Edmonton Glenora and Riverview PC party faithful noted this "managing our future, savings and long term investment policy" is going to be the focus of her time as Alberta's Minister of Finance. By the looks of it Albertans will need a new mind set to think long term. Adopting a Genuine Progress Indicator model of measuring real growth - not just GDP would be a great place to start a change of mind set.

Edmonton Riverview Survey Shows BIG UNDECIDED NUMBERS

There is a kind of hush all over the province this week end as Albertans reflect on the future of their province and who will best serve as our next Premier. Then there is the question of which local candidate is the most aligned with the personal perspectives and aspirations of voters to represent them in the Legislature. Not an easy decision but one an informed and engaged citizen must make on Monday.

There is one constituency where the weekend hush of reflection has been replaced by a vigorous campaign BUZZ. That BUZZ is what is happening in Edmonton Riverview where the PC candidate Wendy Andrews and her Green Theme as has snuck up on Alberta Liberal Leader, Kevin Taft.

A recent telephone survey of 3,453 Edmonton Riverview constituents was done by Banister Research. The findings are the basis for the PC BUZZ in this constituency campaign. Change is in the political air in Alberta in this election and these survey results prove it in spades.

Look at these numbers. There were 12409 original constituency household phone numbers called last week. There were 3,453 actual respondents who were asked would they support Wendy Andrews, yes or no. Here is what they said. There were 992 (28.7%) who supported the PC’s Andrews and 1,092 (31.6%) who will not.

Here is the kicker!!! There are 1369 – that is 39.6% - who are UNDECIDED in Edmonton Riverview at this late stage of the campaign.

This is in Alberta Liberal Leader, Kevin Taft’s home riding. Last election the Alberta Liberal leader, Dr. Kevin Taft got 65% of the vote. This time he looks like he is in a much closer contest. Time will tell.

This survey result has the makings of an upset if those undecided voters show up for change in the form of the Wendy Andrews and her Fresh Thinking green theme campaign. My guess is the Wendy Andrew’s Get-Out-The-Vote volunteers will be energized and vigorous on Monday. Will it be panicky and nerve-wracking for the Taft campaign in Edmonton Riverview tomorrow? Looks like it.

In any event getting out the vote is what will make ALL the difference in the Edmonton Riverview outcome on Monday night. Based on the size of the undecided factor, Edmonton Riverview just became another key race for the whole province to watch.

Stelmach Says Environment Trumps Economy - It is About Time.

You can’t blame Albertans for being confused when you read the reporting on Ed Stelmach’s alleged response(s) to the CEMA letter calling for a partial moratorium on further oil sands leases so conservation issues can be addressed.

I think the Edmonton Journal front page headline repeats Stelmach from over a year ago saying “No Brakes on Oil Sands” and the Globe and Mail has Stelmach saying “Environment Trumps Economy.” I think both stories are accurate but you have to wonder at the framing of the issue and why the PC policy position is not clearer and more consistent. It can change over time and I applaud that it does. But whoda thunk Ed Stelmach was so post-modern! Well, me for one because I know a bit about the man. I know his sense of ecological stewardship and the respect he has for the free enterprise system. However the role of government is to ensure and enhance both aspects of our lives and for the greater common good, not just the accumulation of private wealth.

I have to spend some time reflecting on how to square this circle. The best I can do so far is to express my own feelings and beliefs. The environment has to trump the economy –every time. And the economy has to serve the interests of society –every time and not the other way around as it has been in Alberta as of late.

Government has a duty to regulate and protect the environment. And there are economic consequences in the government's job in exercising that stewardship responsibility. Progress is measured by building on strengths and avoiding or mitigating weaknesses. On the weakness side I want a government that first avoids and, if necessary, fixed screw ups and one that seizes opportunities that present themselves.

On the strength side I want a government who takes responsibility for those things we need to care about as a society, including the natural and social capital deficits we have in Alberta today. I want a government that takes its role of managing our resources seriously and responsibly - including collecting royalty payments owned when due.

Finally I want a government that has a leadership group, like a Cabinet, that can listen, learn and adapt – effectively, quickly and appropriately. That is the real biggie going forward. We need to enhance our ecological integrity in this province. We need to enhance our social cohesion and capacity show caring and compassion for our vulnerable citizens form children, to seniors to the disabled. We need to vastly improve our decision making procedures and capacity.

So Ed, Kevin, Brian, Paul and George, that is what I want my next government to be capable of. The rest is detail that I will trust you, as my Premier, if you are in power after Monday, to work out in a way that is open, transparent and accountable. No pressure!

Debate Uncovers Personal Animosities Amongst the Alberta Political Leaders.

The Debate last week had some interesting subplots. Those revolved around the personal skirmishes between the leaders. It gives a sense of the personal positioning, fears and animosity that may exist between the various party leaders in this campaign.

The order of importance and context of these personal trysts, that I perceived, are as follows:

#1 Mason vs. Taft: Mason has to ensure his base does not go strategic on him and vote Liberal to try and defeat Tories…like what happened in Edmonton in 2004. A vote for Mason is not a Tory victory vote in 2008 but Mason is saying the Alberta Liberals are pretty much the same as the PCs…both are in the pocket of big money. Vote NDP to keep them both honest.

#2 Hinman vs. Stelmach: Hinman has to show some of his “true conservative” credentials and take Stelmach on over his “overspending” and “progressive” values. Hinman gets to ignore the needed increased spending is due to lack of meeting the needed infrastructure and maintenance spending of past years under the Klein regime. Hinman has to give the far right a reason to believe in him and that is best done by showing that the PCs have lost their way. He has gone too far claiming the Stelmach PCs are unprincipled people who “tear up contracts” with oil sands companies (not true at all but good spin) and therefore the PCs not worth reconsidering. Reality check…Suncor has already voluntarily renegotiated its royalty deal and Syncrude is on its way to do the same thing. NO contracts are being torn up and Hinman knows it. He is taking a pass on integrity with this misrepresentation crap…and he knows that too.

#3 Taft vs. Stelmach: This is Taft bemoaning the past of PC governance to the point his is actually running against Ralph not Ed. For example he frames 37 years of the same PC government is long enough and that is reason enough to change government. He discounts the fact that voters decide who they wish to govern them. He skates over the fact that elections are a chance to change governments every 4 years or so and that the various PC governments have been responsive and nimble enough to change with the times. Taft has to beat Ed on a personal level if his is to win this election and based on the changes in the last 14 months, Taft can’t count on Ed gaffing his way out of government. Taft is hoping Calgary is in the process redefining its Red Mile to be a profound Liberal Red Mine with lots of seat shifts. Ed is banking on Redmonton returning to the PCs and becoming EDmonton. Cute metaphors but is there any truth in them? We will know in a week.

#4 Mason vs. Taft and Stelmach: As variations on the same theme, distinctions without a difference. He claims both are in the pockets of big business and they don’t have the best interests of his “regular Albertans” in their hearts...as he obviously does. Nick Taylor, a former Alberta Liberal leader and federal Senator once described his successor Liberal leader, Laurence Decore, as “Getty with glasses.” Mason says the difference between Stelmach and Taft is indistinguishable at their core that he would net even made that distinction between how they would govern.…especially their too cozy relationship with big business in Alberta. Not very accurate on the evidence…but good positioning for Mason to speak to his base who need to believe in him to stay with him.

If all politics are local, are all leadership arguments and differences of opinion ultimately personal?

Alberta Debate Results: #1 Stelmach, #2 Don't Know, #3 Taft

The impact of the Alberta election debate is the subject of a CanWest poll published today. My blog post for the CBC YouCast site said the debate changed nothing for the undecided voter but the leaders all reaffirmed and reassured their bases. The poll results confirm this.

Pundits and MSM see political debates as contests between party leaders so, by definition, there has to be a winner and a loser. When there isn’t a clear result the chattering class suffer from a kind of political cognitive dissonance because can’t resolve the values conflict that demands a winner and a loser. I say let them suffer.

Looking at the poll results, ¾ of viewers did not change their minds and 23% are still undecided with about 10 days to go. The numbers say Stelmach “won” for 30.1% of the respondents and 34.6% say they are voting for him. Taft is perceived to have “won” by 23.3% and 23.1% are voting for him. This is showing the core vote for each party is pleased with their guy’s performance – nothing more can be read into this poll result. The NDP and WAP results are inconsequential but there are some interesting strategic implications around them for the two main parties.

The WAP’s Hinman confirmed his fiscal fundamentalist right-wing agenda. His challenge was to reassure the newly merged WAP members that they are a political force and not be discouraged with the President’s resignation and the poor showing on candidate recruitment. Hinman has to sustain his 70K popular vote from the 2004 election and get re-elect to succeed.

The NDP has to reassure core supporters not to vote Liberal for strategic purposes to defeat the PCs. He has done that by taking on both Stelmach and Taft. He has positioned Taft as pretty much a PCer in a red sweater. His core is reassured that an NDP vote is not a waste and they should return to the role of keeping both the Libs and the PC honest. He has to at least retain seats and sustain popular vote levels to succeed.

Taft has performed well this election campaign but the debate is where he will have peaked and is now plateaued. He will sustain this support level to and through Election Day. That potentially means more seats but not government. With no clear ballot question and a considerable but seemingly disengaged undecided segment, the big momentum change the Libs need to form government is not happening. His attempt to position Stelmach as same old…same old has not gelled because Stelmach has proven to be an agent of significant change in the past 14 months.

As for Stelmach, he has kept his true Progressive Conservative party core. With Hinman’s debate performance, the far right voters that abandoned Klein in 2004, are not coming back. That is a god thing because it clearly puts to bed that Stelmach is just a continuation of the past government. Stelmach has recognized that Albertans what change and elections are always about change and choices. The results coming out of this debate and the campaign so far shows Albertans want change but they are coming to realize Ed Stelmach is the kind a prudent, thoughtful and careful change agent we need in these time of turmoil.

It looks like Albertans are prepared to give him a real shot as a change agent and to give him more time to get the needed changes done right, not just rapidly. This time he will have his own team and his own mandate. He will also face a much higher expectation level for deliver on his promises and to stay true to his stated values than any other Premier of Alberta in history.

Poll Shows Taft's Election in Edmonton Riverview is No Shoe-In

Well we pundits and the mainstream media may think this election campaign is boring but recent poll results in Edmonton Riverview shows that the citizens there don’t think it is boring. A full 93% of the citizens of Edmonton Riverview say they intend to vote in the election. We know fewer will show up but that expression of voter intent is pretty good everything considered.

Here are the startling results of the 1037 people in the Edmonton Riverview constituency who were polled on Feb18-19. This is the home turf of the leader of the Alberta Liberal Party, Dr. Kevin Taft. This random poll sample size has a margin of error +/- 3% 19 times out of 20.

QUESTION:
“If you were to vote today, which of the following parties would you vote for?”

Liberal 35%
Progressive Conservative 28%
NDP 7%
Green 5%
Wildrose Alliance 5%
Undecided 19%

Last election Dr. Taft garnered 65.48% of the vote and the PC candidate took 22.77%.

QUESTION:
“Which of the following issues will be most important in helping you decide your vote?”

Health Care 41%
Environment 26%
Crime and Justice 18%
Affordable Housing 15%

Campaigns matter and I have said all along that this election is too close to call, especially given how volatile the electorate is this time. Looking at these results Dr. Taft may have to spend much more time in his constituency than he originally planned.

The undecided vote is high for half way through a campaign and if they show up anything can happen. The Greens and the WAP are hot on the heels of the NDP too. I wonder if there is a foot race for third place in the province this time too.

If the Alberta voters want change and if Edmonton Riverview is any indication, change may come in many forms. It will be interesting to see the range and variety of changes that may come from this election.

I said weeks ago the only safe seat in Alberta this time is Ed Stelmach’s. Everyone else will have to earn victory the hard way – by working for it on the phone, at the doors and through the internet. This election is far from over – and as Edmonton Riverview is telling us, it is not boring either.

All Party Campaigns Open With More "Oops" Than Opportunities

None of the big three political parties are off to a very auspicious campaign start.

The Stelmach Doctor deal had a harsh reality check of what is actually do-able versus what is electorally announce-able! The dancing and adjusting done between the Edmonton and Calgary announcements is embarrassing.

The Alberta Liberals have had to dump a candidate who is facing drug and bribery charges. That too is embarrassing.

The Dippers are on the Dave Rutherford radio program apologizing to the Chair of the “Our Fair Share” Royalty Review for a very public misrepresentation of some private email exchanges. More embarrassments.

It can’t be stage fright or novice actors forgetting their lines. It is just the stuff that happens in elections where time pressures, campaign exuberance and human error hype too often trumps considered wisdom and thoughtfulness.

No big deal on these issues…but Alberta has some enormous challenges and opportunities gong forwards. We need political leaders of all parties to be able to anticipate and avoid screw ups and to not miss opportunities. We also need political leaders who can clearly communicate what they care about and what they are personally very committed to. We need to see their demonstrated capabilities to assume the array and weight of the responsibilities of the office of Premier.

Finally we need to give our politicians enough slack so they can learn, adapt and change – quickly and correctly as required. They need this permission to be flexible without being seen as indecisive, weak or “flip flopping.”

God I hate that term. It is such a stupid characterization that actually impedes open, accountable, necessary and effective change. It stifles good governance and good decision making too. If the next Premier leaves the job as the same person they where when they came to the office that means they are incompetent or they held Alberta back from realizing its full potential or both.

Voter Apathy and a Perfect Storm for Alberta Politics

Here is what voter indifference can do to the future of Alberta. We are already deeply into election mode and it will be apparent after New Years. Unless our provincial political agenda changes, we can anticipate a continuation of voter apathy. This is due to the disconnect between modern machine politics and the concerns of real people who are leading real lives and facing real issues.

What if politics does not change and the cynicism and scepticism continue as the dominant political response? Well I don’t have a worst possible partisan political scenario because that really depends on your point of view and your party affiliation.

I do however have a sense of consequences of lost and bungled opportunities for the province as well as the potential for some serious political mistakes to be made…by anyone and everyone in the running.

I think citizen indifference and voter apathy is the biggest threat to mature democracies. Apathy and indifference is not only the fault of the citizens. The political system has to take much of the blame. For those fans of proportional representation, stifle yourselves. It is not a cure…it is more likely to add complications to the affliction and erode the necessary capacity for effective on-going governing.

Here is what I think can happen as a consequence of citizen apathy and voter indifference. It is entirely possible we could end up with new leadership races in the PC, Alberta Liberals and the NDP in 2008. If that were to happen we would have squandered the opportunity for meaningful change and will set Alberta on a course of least 2 more years of drift and dissonance.

Here is my armchair quarterbacking that drives Alberta to that result. There is a PC repeat and amplification of the 2004 and the recent Calgary by election phenomenon. The far right goes to the Alliance and other marginal parties weakening the rural stronghold of the PCs. They are spread thinly and make no real electoral inroads.

The progressives stay home in disgust or show up in anger and send a message to the powers that be by parking their ballots with the Greens. Why the Greens? It is perceived as a safe parking place because it does not help the Liberals directly and sends a strong message to the PCs that the policy agenda is dated. Women and youth who do show up will be angry as well and go to the Greens too. This will be a protest vote about the relevance and priorities of the public policy agenda and mainline party platforms.

The consequence is a PC minority government. That means the knives are going to be out for Stelmach for obvious reasons. The Alberta Liberals will benefit from more seats but they are also going to be after Taft’s head too. Because he would be seen as unsuccessful and ineffective in going for the kill and gaining the political power he ought to have realized in the face of an "obviously weakened" PC party.

The Greens don’t even have to elect anyone to be seen as winners. They get a big bump in popular vote and due to protests, anger and ballot parking they rival or perhaps even surpass the NDP popular vote. That will strike fear in the hearts of the Alberta NDP and been seen across the country as a foreshadowing of what may happen to the Dippers in the forthcoming federal election too. Brian Mason’s leadership also gets challenged as a result.

A PC minority government in March of 2008 will likely results in three political party leadership campaigns by late 2008. Who knows what the outcomes of those exercises will be? One thing for sure is if this happens any semblance of real governing will be suspended for at least another year. A lack of governing focus and capacity could roll over well into 2010 and beyond as another election will undoubtedly happen sooner than later.

Uncertainty then becomes the new normal in Alberta. Not a good thing and nothing we are very used to. Frankly I don't see this happening if the political parties, particularly the PCs, get their acts together and become relevant to the lives of Albertans again.

One thing for sure though, even without this perfect storm scenario, Alberta politics are guaranteed to be interesting for the first time in a long time.

Wake Up Alberta and Get Ready for a February Election Call

The darkening clouds of an American recession and the presumed pending elections in Alberta and Canada means we cynical citizens have to take our heads out of the sand and start to look seriously about how we want to be governed and by whom.

Our dollar parity and the greed machine stupidity of the now world-side Us inspired sub prime mortgage fiasco, the US housing market mess, yet another BSE animal, more US soft wood protectionism and the approaching American Primaries adds to the "fun." Inflation is taking hold in Alberta and the cost of living is gettign out of control, especially for newcomers, to the point where more people are now leaving Alberta than coming here. It all helps to create a miasma of economic uncertainty going into election times.

I will spend the weeks leading up to an election focusing this blog, in part, on some of the big picture the issues and policy concerns of Albertans as we ponder the forthcoming election(s). The lack of any plan or the lack of believing we even needed one during the last half of the Klein regime has left Alberta with some seriously complicated and significantly critical issues to handle.

Commodity prices are high except for natural gas and that is masking some other economic concerns like the consequences of high costs, labour shortages, inflation, affordable housing and social services breakdowns just to name a few. I have not even touched on the environmental concerns which is becoming the new #1 issue for Alberta.

All this complexity demands experienced, effective, nimble and adaptive political and business leadership. We need more focused and activist leadership to jump into these issues and with the ability to design some comprehensive plans for serious long term solutions. Then the leadership must have the ability to focus and execute those plans.

There is not much time left for citizens of Alberta to get serious about deciding what they want changed in their government and governors. Elections are all about change and my best guess is we can expect an Alberta election writ in February. I have three date ranges in mind as to when I think that election call will happen. Feb 6 or 7 is very likely because they are the days immediately after the Throne Speech.

This is a defining opportunity for Stelmach to show once and for all he is no Klein clone. He has already effectively distanced himself from Ralph on a number of significant policy issues. The Throne Speech will be a winner if it aligns and resonates with the hopes of Albertans and helps show how we can fulfill the providence of this province. It must also addresses the fears of Albertans, and there are fears out there.

Next likely election call timing is Feb 12 or 13 which is just before the scheduled Valentines Day Budget Speech. If we get an election call instead of a Budget Speech then we can expect the “budget” to be official PC party policy and rolled out in the election campaign. This will reinforce Premier Stelmach as his own man and with a real plan and a realistic focus for the future. This pre- budget election call has happened many times before. It is not a new idea and one that may happen again.

Finally, if they let Oberg read the Budget Speech and table the Budget the rules require a certain number of days of debate. Then the writ would be dropped likely during the week of Feb 25. My instincts tell me Stelmach would like the election to be over before Easter which comes early this year, March 23 to be exact. That is why this late date post Budget timing is the least likely election call by my speculations.

So that means early or mid February election call. Putting Christmas aside, that leaves 4-6 weeks for Albertans to get their heads around what kind of government they want going forward and who they will entrust to lead us. In the meantime we have the chance to let our politicians know what we expect by way of a preferred future. I recommend direct citizen action by personal political lobbying and an aggressive citizen's action pre-campaign communications plan aimed directly at all Alberta politicians of all stripes.

So get busy Alberta and fill up the the politicians mail boxes, email in-boxes, radio call-ins and Letters to the Editors in January. Let the powers that be, and those who aspire to power, know your ideas and demands for a better Alberta. Many Alberta are coming into this election disinterested, distrusting and disgusted with how our province (and our country) has been run as of late, especially in the later days of the Klein regime and the second year of the Harper government. Cynicism, skepticism and passive hoping is not a method for effective change.

I smell democracy in the air and a desire for change. That is a potent combination that usually means change is coming. The big question is does Progressive Conservative Ed Stelmach, Alberta Liberal Kevin Taft, NDP Brian Mason or Green George Reid represents the kind of change we want and which one will best meet the future forward needs of Alberta? Albertans will be answering that question very shortly as we go to the polls with an election starting well before February is over.

Too Much Heat and Not Enough Light on the Royalty Collection Issues

So now we see the over heated rhetoric and misinformation campaigning move from the energy industry and into the Alberta Legislature. This is a sad “state of affairs.”

The Alberta Liberals are torquing the facts by insinuating criminal intent on the Klein government Ministers of Energy and the current Minister of Energy and is reported to be “suggesting” a criminal investigation may be needed….” Mr. Taft, the Leader of the Alberta Liberals is apparently making these unfounded accusations and he knows better. After all he has a B.A. in political science, a Masters degree in community development and a PhD in business. So this hyping of the facts by such an educated and experienced individual is neither ignorance nor innocence. It is more like the kind of negative, half-truth, Republican-esque partisan politics we have come to expect from Stephen Harper.

The Auditor General Fred Dunn has clearly stated the situation around past royalty collection decisions by the Klein government. This kind of decision is at the discretion of the government and taken by the appropriate Minister, the Energy Minister in this case.

Premier Stelmach also seems to be getting caught up in the torque the facts for effect and rhetoric. He is reported to be tying an “Our Fair Share” recommendation for a proposed Oil Sands Severance Tax as being akin to the NEP and saying such a tax would “cripple the province’s economy.” That is mostly a political judgement. Ironically if Stelmach had kept that severance tax recommendation he would not have to try and renegotiate the Suncor/Syncrude royalty agreements. That tax would have leveled the playing field for the newer projects. That is partly why the Expert Panel recommended the tax.

Political judgment aside, Premier Stelmach goes much further by implying such a "production tax" would drive people out of the province, create a situation where people could not pay their mortgages and many business would go broke…as he suggests happened with the NEP.

The NEP is part of the Alberta mythosphere and we tend to forget that the NEP was negotiated with Alberta. The fact is conveniently forgotten that before the NEP got implemented President Reagan released the US strategic oil supplies. That alone pulled the rug out of the world oil prices and as they plunged they sent the Alberta economy into a tail spin. The NEP would have really hurt Alberta but it didn't, President Reagan got to us first.

The issue of uncollected energy royalties is very clear in the Auditor Generals Report. The administration recommended an increase and that recommendation was rejected by the Minister(s) of the day. That decision was totally within the government discretion so no legal wrong doing is at issue. To project a criminal intent is over the line.

What is at issue here is the quality and consequences of the policy judgment call to not increase royalties and how and why it was made at that time. We elect politicians to make these “hard choices” on our behalf and the issues are never simple and all the facts are never fully known. It is always a judgment call.

So it comes down to a few salient points. Did the Ministers of the day follow a proper review process and analysis of the situation in coming to this discretionary judgment? On what basis did they make the decision and was it a sound judgment and how do they justify the decision as being in the public interest.

The other key question is who did the Klein government listen to in arriving at such decision? Interestingly, Premier Stelmach is quoted now as saying "But at the end of the day, in this government the decisions are made by government, not listening to advice that may come from bureaucracies." "We take advice obviously, from others."

Well I hope the new Lobbyist Act will help us answer the question of just who those "others" are who our elected representatives listen to in the future and why they were so persuasive. We Albertans can then perhaps begin to understand just what part of the public interest those "others" represent. We can also consider if our elected representatives are serving the common good in the exercise of the many discretions they have and the complex decisions they have to make.

Lets remind the politicians of Premier Stelmach's early suggestion to calm down. Lets also get serious about this stuff. There is enough grist for any political mill in these royalty issues that hype and rhetoric are not only unnecessary - it is unhelpful in assisting Albertans in better understanding what is and was going on.

None of this needs to be torqued for effect. The politically motivated manufacturing of misleading media headlines are not helpful. Lets get opportunistic partisan politics out of the royalty deliberations and go right to the debate about how we ensure open, transparent, accountable and good government as the larger goal.

There are signs of hope this could happen. The multi-party support of the NDP motion for an emergency debate on these issues was a step in the right direction…we need more politicians with that greater sense of responsibility and public duty who will stand up like that. Good for those individual MLAs from all parties who voted for the emergency debate. I am looking forward to reading Hansard to see who the real statesmen are on this issue.

Link Byfield Says the Growing Undecided Voters in Alberta is Good for the Wildrose Party

Link Byfield has sent out another call for signatures to help the new Wildrose Party to get political party status. He sees the Cameron Strategies poll last week showing some 37% of Albertans undecided in how they will vote next election as fertile ground for a new, energized far-right political movement. Here is what Link had to say in an e-mail on Friday:

“An astonishing poll this week from Cameron Strategy in Calgary shows that undecided voters are now the largest group in Alberta (37%). The Stelmach Conservatives have dropped to 32%. That's down from 54% in January. Liberals, NDP, Greens and Alliance are all stalled. Highest place are the Liberals, unchanged at 16%. The Alberta Alliance remains at 5%, down from 9% in 2004 election.”

It is actually 30% undecided and 6% who will not vote at all in the polling figures I have seen,but that is a quibble. I wonder if Link remembered this pollster was also an able and key advisor to the Dr. Oberg PC leadership campaign. Speaking of Dr. Oberg, when is he going to release his donor list from the PC leadership campaign – what has it been 9 months? He is the last to do it. Remember Dr. Morton said he never would tell Albertans who bankrolled him.

As for the poll, it does not look good for those of us who believe in the leadership of Ed Stelmach. I have only seen the news release on the poll. I have not seen the questions or the data distribution so it is hard to really comment except in the most general of terms. We all know wording of questions can have an impact on outcomes.

It would be interesting to know how many phone calls in total were made in this poll before they got the 600 participants. Some indications are that as many as 15-20 calls have to be made these days before someone is prepared to take the time to answer pollster. The end result is the group participating is not as random as one might think because people self-select to participate and we can never tell what their motivations are.

We also know how the participants split geographically, a third in each of Edmonton, Calgary and other. We don't know gender, age, education, income breakdowns and if that mix correlates with the representative population characteristics of Alberta. I always like to know that before I rely on the data. Cameron Strategies is very reputable and experienced so I am sure they will soon release all the data and the wording of the questions too.

Regardless of these technicalities, judging by these results, it sure looks like Albertans are disenchanted with politics these days. Stelmach is taking the brunt of this but there is little solace for the Taft Liberals or Mason's NDP, who Link notes are both “stalled.” The Alliance is in free fall too. That and "37%" undecided – maybe the Wildrose Party has some potential to be a force in the next election.

In the mean time the Wildrose Party need signatures to qualify as a political party for the next Alberta election and that is obviously Job 1 for them right now.

Wildrose Party States Its View of Alberta in Canada

Link Byfield, the Chief Cook and Bottle Washer, of the new Wildrose Party of Alberta had some interesting observations yesterday on his Citizen’s Centre for Freedom and Democracy weekly Commentary. He has graciously given me permission to “post any or all of it.”

As we approach Canada Day it is appropriate that we think of how this country works and how Alberta fits in it. And we Albertans have to have that political conversation. In that spirit, here is most, but not all, of Link’s comments.

Link’s reasons for a new Alberta based right-wing party are interesting. They say “…federal change must come from the provinces not Ottawa, and that Alberta is the province best positioned to force that change. It has become obvious that Alberta’s traditional parties will never stand up to Ottawa, and that a new party must be formed to do it. The change of command from Ralph Klein to Ed Stelmach has left a large void in Alberta’s provincial politics.”

They see the Firewall Letter approach to isolate Alberta as key to the future of Alberta in Canada and he says, “…thinking people have realized that the Reform Party vision of Canada can only be implemented by provincial governments. The small alternatives of the past were not broadly based, and focused on the wrong things. They offered either separation or more right-wing government. Most Albertans have never wanted either, and still don’t.”

He goes on to make some other interesting comments on the state of Alberta, relations with the Harper government and our place in Canada. “Besides, as long as Ralph Klein was premier, the Tories were unbeatable. Politically speaking, Ralph put the whole province happily to sleep.”

I agree with this statement.

“Now that he’s gone, Albertans are waking up fast to the eternal reality that they are sitting ducks to federal aggression. Any fond hope in the Harper Conservatives vanished when they flip-flopped on Kyoto, taxed income trusts, and blatantly pandered to the “Quebecois nation” on equalization.

It’s quickly dawning on Albertans that it is not the job of the country’s prime minister to defend Alberta, much as they wish he would. It’s the job of the premier of Alberta.
Klein never did it. Stelmach isn’t doing it. And nobody thinks Liberal leader Kevin Taft will do it either.

The most striking thing about Alberta’s political scene since Ralph left is that while the Tories are steadily collapsing, the Liberals are not rising. Nobody is.

Besides, as long as Ralph Klein was premier, the Tories were unbeatable. Politically speaking, Ralph put the whole province happily to sleep.

Now that he’s gone, Albertans are waking up fast to the eternal reality that they are sitting ducks to federal aggression. Any fond hope in the Harper Conservatives vanished when they flip-flopped on Kyoto, taxed income trusts, and blatantly pandered to the “Quebecois nation” on equalization.

It’s quickly dawning on Albertans that it is not the job of the country’s prime minister to defend Alberta, much as they wish he would. It’s the job of the premier of Alberta.

Klein never did it. Stelmach isn’t doing it. And nobody thinks Liberal leader Kevin Taft will do it either.

The most striking thing about Alberta’s political scene since Ralph left is that while the Tories are steadily collapsing, the Liberals are not rising. Nobody is.”

I disagree often with Link Byfield but I have say he always makes me think!

Happy Canada Day!

Alberta is Ripe for Change - But What Change Means is Still an Open Question

Ipsos Reid has it figured right when they say the Stelmach Honeymoon is over based on their recent poll results. The fact that all parties are showing support levels that are the same as the 2004 election means politically Alberta is right back at square one in figuring out what kind of changes it wants in government. The PCs support is again at 47%, the Libs at 29%, the NDP at 10% and the Alberta Alliance at 9%. But there is so much more of interest as one delves into the devilling details.

Conventional wisdom is that Alberta majority governments are the result of the rural vote and one major city. In the Klein days that city was Calgary. Today we see Calgary and Edmonton reversing roles, if these poll results are meaningful and they hold until the next election. The PCs are down 8 points in Calgary support (now at 42%) but they are up 12 points in Edmonton enjoying 47% support and they are holding their own in the rest of Alberta up 2 points to 53% support.

Calgary is feeling the Stelmach PCs are not as “into them” as the Klein version was and only 33% believe the current government is addressing their needs. This is even with a large majority of PC MLAs and 5 Cabinet members now representing that city. A public spat between the Calgary Mayor and the Premier fueled by Calgary MSM has done its work.

Curiously, 58% of Edmontonians believes the Stelmach PCs “get them.” This is with only 3 PC MLAs, two of whom are now in Cabinet and one of those MLAs had to go to Court to get a recount and slipped in with a 12 vote margin.

Klein was always more popular than the PC party and he traditionally polled in the low to mid 70s for personal support. Stelmach has personal support in the 54% range and the trend is down. Again his numbers are warped by the Calgary discontent where they don’t like him on a 2 to 1 ratio. One has to wonder if this angst is more about Dinning’s leadership loss than the consequences of Stelmach’s actual win. Calgary did not see this coming and they don’t know what happened or how to interpret it – so they seem to conclude that it must be bad.

Again Edmonton is in a reverse contrast from the Klein years where he had low Edmonton support except in the 1997 election when he was rewarded with more Edmonton seats for a good job on debt and deficit. Today Edmonton is about 60-40 in support of Stelmach and Ed is enjoying his best support in the deep south, right there in Ted Morton Reformer country. The approval rating for Stelmach there is 70-30…that rivals Ralph Klein results. Not bad for a PROGRESSIVE Conservative from the north.

Interestingly, while the Liberal Party support is at 29%, up 9 points since April and 7 points since November 2006, Kevin Taft’s personal support is up only 5 points since April and is actually down 5 points from November when Klein was still around. His job is not all that secure either it seems.

All this says Albertans are still looking for a change but they have not yet found the kind of change they want. They have not yet abandoned the PCs for the Liberals and they have not tossed Stelmach aside for Taft. This means all possible scenarios are at play and nothing can be taken for granted by anyone, especially the Stelmach PCs.

The PCs can easily lose the next election but it will be their own fault, not the result of a perceived positive Liberal alternative. The Liberals do not yet seem to have the right stuff to convince Albertans that they are positive choice for government. Currently they are just an alternative to the PCs. In the real world of electoral politics, that is enough for the Liberals to get power and form the next government. But if that happens, based on what we know from the polls today, Liberals forming a government will be because the PCs let that happen.

The battle for the hearts, minds and hopes of Albertans is on now and fully engaged, even though the election may be a much as a year away. It is going to be interesting.

Calgary By-election Just a Tremour on the Very Shaky and Volatile Political Ground in Alberta These Days

The messages from the Calgary by-election have been heard by Ed Stelmach. Kevin Taft is being circumspect over the implications of the Liberal victory. Mainstream journalists have done a fine job of providing some context on the by-election results. Look hear, and hear for some good examples.

There is a denouement period now and some speculations on political futures starting to run amok. It will not be a surprise to see as much as a 40% turnover in the legislature from MLA retirements in the coming election. A 25% turnover is pretty usual and with leadership changes one can expect some more changes in the candidates.

What is equally as important as who is going to run is what policy issues will they run on in terms of platform for the next election? We Albertans need to address so many issues that have been neglected in the past as well as those emerging and in full bloom due to growth pressures.

My guess is the next election in Calgary will be more like Edmonton where the candidate has to win their seats on merit, organization and hard work. That has not been the case in Calgary for PC candidates in recent years. But that is changed and the Calgary candidates are beginning to understand that. Calgarians can expect provincial politicians to be knocking on doors starting this summer even with an election being as much as up to a year away.

Citizens can take back the political process and create some changes in how it works and who is involved particularly at election time. There was a big attitude change heralded almost 3 years ago in the last municipal elections when some 40% of incumbent candidates were defeated. The writing is on the wall for the up coming provincial election. Candidates, incumbents in particular, had better start re-earning our respect and trust right now if they hope to win again. Just positioning for the next election with promises and platitudes with no commitment to viable long range planning is not going to cut it.



Citizens are not a happy lot these days and whan to be assured that they can get the kind of government they want and need. Just look at all the changes in recent provincial elections aroudn the country. Alberta is even more volatile due to growth pressures – no doubt about it...the times they are a'changin.'